Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.</li>
<li>If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.</li>
<li>Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.
If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.
Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.


Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chips /Cover Story: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush</li><li>China-U.S. /: China, U.S. Reach Basic Consensus in Kuala Lumpur Trade Talks Ahead of Leaders’ Summit</li><li>Hospitals /: China’s Public Hospitals Report Mixed Fortunes as Financial Pressures Mount</li></ul>

Chips /Cover Story: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold RushChina-U.S. /: China, U.S. Reach Basic Consensus in Kuala Lumpur Trade Talks Ahead of Leaders’ SummitHospitals /: China’s Public Hospitals Report Mixed Fortunes as Financial Pressures Mount

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush 

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.</li>
<li>OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?</li>
<li>In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!


First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush

TOP STORIES Chips / Cover Story: U. S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush A global race to dominate artificial...

Caixin Global

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

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Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

​Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush

TOP STORIES Chips / Cover Story: U. S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush A global race to dominate artificial...

Caixin Global

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...