IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (1836774D CH)</a> is the world’s largest raw milk provider as measured by herd size of dairy cows as of 30 June 2020 and raw milk production volume in 1H20, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Youran was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a> until PAG Capital’s investment in 2015. Youran is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $800 million, according to press reports.   </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-youran-dairy-group-ipo-initiation-ecownomics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51709" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group IPO Initiation: Ecownomics</a>, we stated that notwithstanding its high revenue dependence on Yili, Youran is capitalising on the favourable demand-supply imbalance for raw milk in China by delivering strong organic growth (on a pro-forma basis), rising margins and accretive acquisitions. We concluded that Youran is worth a look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Youran's potential valuation range. </p></div></div></div>

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (1836774D CH) is the world’s largest raw milk provider as measured by herd size of dairy cows as of 30 June 2020 and raw milk production volume in 1H20, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Youran was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) until PAG Capital’s investment in 2015. Youran is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $800 million, according to press reports.   In China Youran Dairy Group IPO Initiation: Ecownomics, we stated that notwithstanding its high revenue dependence on Yili, Youran is capitalising on the favourable demand-supply imbalance for raw milk in China by delivering strong organic growth (on a pro-forma basis), rising margins and accretive acquisitions. We concluded that Youran is worth a look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Youran's potential valuation range. 

China Youran Dairy Group IPO: Valuation First-Look

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Equity Bottom-Up

Perfect Medical Health Management / Equity Bottom-Up

Perfect Medical Health Management (1830 HK)

<ul>
<li>Perfect Shape: founder consistently increased his stake; management appears confident in expansion initiatives;</li>
<li>Hermes International: APAC has been gaining greater significance, as expected;</li>
<li>A2 Milk: more than half of the company is functioning brilliantly for shareholders; I presume a short-term glitch for the remaining.</li>
</ul>


Perfect Shape: founder consistently increased his stake; management appears confident in expansion initiatives;
Hermes International: APAC has been gaining greater significance, as expected;
A2 Milk: more than half of the company is functioning brilliantly for shareholders; I presume a short-term glitch for the remaining.


Recent Updates: Perfect Shape, Hermes Int'l, A2 Milk

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>One of the biggest trends that COVID-19 has resulted has been the impact on the global population as millions of people delay having babies due to so many uncertainties associated with virus. China has been no exception. As such, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/chinas-central-bank-pboc-paper-suggests-dropping-childbirth-limits.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">People's Bank of China</a> released a working paper on 14 April that suggested that China faces severe population problems and that <strong>China allow three or more children per household. </strong></p>
<p>All in all, despite this urgent message from the People's Bank of China regarding the need to scrap the restriction in childbirth policy, this is not yet official. Nonetheless, given the fact that this document is coming from the People's Bank of China combined with the need to combat the big negative impact of COVID-19 on people having children, there could be an increasing probability that the Chinese government could indeed announce a change its policy to allow three or more children in 2021.</p>
</div><p>Some of the key infant formula related stocks that could benefit from the Chinese government allowing three or more children include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, Beingmate Baby &amp; Child Food (002570 CH), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>.</p>


One of the biggest trends that COVID-19 has resulted has been the impact on the global population as millions of people delay having babies due to so many uncertainties associated with virus. China has been no exception. As such, the People's Bank of China released a working paper on 14 April that suggested that China faces severe population problems and that China allow three or more children per household. 
All in all, despite this urgent message from the People's Bank of China regarding the need to scrap the restriction in childbirth policy, this is not yet official. Nonetheless, given the fact that this document is coming from the People's Bank of China combined with the need to combat the big negative impact of COVID-19 on people having children, there could be an increasing probability that the Chinese government could indeed announce a change its policy to allow three or more children in 2021.
Some of the key infant formula related stocks that could benefit from the Chinese government allowing three or more children include A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), Beingmate Baby &amp; Child Food (002570 CH), and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).

China May Scrap The Restriction of Childbirths - Impact on Baby Formula Related Stocks in China

<ul>
<li>According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;</li>
<li>Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.</li>
</ul>


According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;
Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.


<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> will commence trading on Wednesday, 13 November. Feihe priced its IPO at HK$7.50 per share (at the low-end of the range). The allotment results showed that the international offer shares were "moderately over-subscribed" and the Hong Kong offer shares were "significantly over-subscribed."</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-feihe-ipo-valuation-is-good-for-you" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our valuation note</a>, we said that the IPO valuation is attractive and we would participate in the IPO. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding. </p></div></div></div>

China Feihe (6186 HK) will commence trading on Wednesday, 13 November. Feihe priced its IPO at HK$7.50 per share (at the low-end of the range). The allotment results showed that the international offer shares were "moderately over-subscribed" and the Hong Kong offer shares were "significantly over-subscribed."In our valuation note, we said that the IPO valuation is attractive and we would participate in the IPO. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding. 

China Feihe: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

Australia

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company 
offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)

China Youran Dairy Group IPO: Valuation First-Look

Youran is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $800 million, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first...

Arun George

Recent Updates: Perfect Shape, Hermes Int'l, A2 Milk

In this article, let's go through some recent updates from three high-quality businesses in my highly selective investable universe.

Urbem Capital

2021 High Conviction: A2 Milk

Buying quality businesses at or below fair prices and holding them for the long run is the key to generate alpha. A2 Milk at the current level...

Urbem Capital

China Feihe: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

China Feihe (6186 HK) will commence trading on Wednesday, 13 November. Feihe priced its IPO at HK$7.50 per share (at the low-end of the range). The...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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China Youran Dairy Group IPO: Valuation First-Look

Youran is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $800 million, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first...

Arun George

Recent Updates: Perfect Shape, Hermes Int'l, A2 Milk

In this article, let's go through some recent updates from three high-quality businesses in my highly selective investable universe.

Urbem Capital

China May Scrap The Restriction of Childbirths - Impact on Baby Formula Related Stocks in China

The People's Bank of China released a paper on 14 April that suggested that China allow three or more children per household. In this insight, we...

Douglas Kim

2021 High Conviction: A2 Milk

Buying quality businesses at or below fair prices and holding them for the long run is the key to generate alpha. A2 Milk at the current level...

Urbem Capital

China Feihe: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

China Feihe (6186 HK) will commence trading on Wednesday, 13 November. Feihe priced its IPO at HK$7.50 per share (at the low-end of the range). The...

Arun George