New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The American Dream remains alive. The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has received FDA clearance to sell Stage 1 and 2 a2 Platinum Infant Formula (IF) as part of the FDA's enforcement discretion to fill its shortage</li><li>Medium-term market presence is reliant on further FDA approval(s)</li><li>Assuming ongoing approval, we estimate a base case valuation benefit of ~+NZ15–20cps</li></ul>

The American Dream remains alive. The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has received FDA clearance to sell Stage 1 and 2 a2 Platinum Infant Formula (IF) as part of the FDA's enforcement discretion to fill its shortageMedium-term market presence is reliant on further FDA approval(s)Assuming ongoing approval, we estimate a base case valuation benefit of ~+NZ15–20cps

The A2 Milk Company: American Dream Is Still Alive

<ul><li>ATM expects it to be incrementally beneficial: ATM has received confirmation to sell and distribute a2 Platinum Stage 1 and 2 IF product as part of the enforcement discretion</li><li>Valuation benefit: Assuming approval can be granted medium-term which is still to be confirmed</li><li>State of the market now – product shortage is largely over</li></ul>

ATM expects it to be incrementally beneficial: ATM has received confirmation to sell and distribute a2 Platinum Stage 1 and 2 IF product as part of the enforcement discretionValuation benefit: Assuming approval can be granted medium-term which is still to be confirmedState of the market now – product shortage is largely over

The A2 Milk Company: US FDA Clearance – The American Dream?

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution against a difficult backdrop</li><li>FY23 outlook commentary for high single digit revenue growth and a modest improvement in EBITDA margins implies minimal consensus changes</li><li>We estimate the stock price is now fully reflecting ATM's medium-term management scenario which is not without risk</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution against a difficult backdropFY23 outlook commentary for high single digit revenue growth and a modest improvement in EBITDA margins implies minimal consensus changesWe estimate the stock price is now fully reflecting ATM's medium-term management scenario which is not without risk

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Result — Baby Steps

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6m</li><li>The result was slightly ahead of our and consensus expectations driven by slightly higher revenue</li><li>Based off the commentary we assume very little changes to consensus with consensus currently assuming +8% revenue growth and +130bps margin improvement</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6mThe result was slightly ahead of our and consensus expectations driven by slightly higher revenueBased off the commentary we assume very little changes to consensus with consensus currently assuming +8% revenue growth and +130bps margin improvement

The A2 Milk Company (ATM): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>FY22 result breakdown: Likely to be a number of moving parts given lockdown impacts on both costs and revenue in 2H22</li><li>Outlook — the all important question: Consistent with previous years, we don't expect quantitative guidance</li><li>US business updates: Recent US IF updates and more definitive strategic direction on ATM's loss making US liquid milk business</li></ul>

FY22 result breakdown: Likely to be a number of moving parts given lockdown impacts on both costs and revenue in 2H22Outlook — the all important question: Consistent with previous years, we don't expect quantitative guidanceUS business updates: Recent US IF updates and more definitive strategic direction on ATM's loss making US liquid milk business

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Preview — All Eyes on FY23

New Zealand

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)

The A2 Milk Company: American Dream Is Still Alive

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has received FDA clearance to sell Stage 1 and 2 a2 Platinum Infant Formula (IF) as part of the FDA's enforcement...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company: US FDA Clearance – The American Dream?

This morning the FDA has reported The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has finally been granted approval to sell Infant Formula (IF) into the US; ATM’s...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Result — Baby Steps

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result, modestly ahead of our and consensus expectations, highlighting ongoing solid execution...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company (ATM): FY22 Result – Initial Impressions

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) reported a solid FY22 result with EBITDA of NZ$196.2m and NPAT of NZ$122.6m and the result was slightly ahead of our and...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company: FY22 Preview — All Eyes on FY23

After a solid 1H22 result, we forecast a 2H22 sequential EBITDA decline (to NZ$87.3m from NZ$97.6m in 1H22) given lower margins as marketing and...

Forsyth Barr

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