Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Italy

A2A S.p.A. is an Italian utility company.  The Company is active in electricity (production, distribution, trading and sales), gas (supply, distribution, trading and sales), district heating, waste (collection, treatment and disposal), integrated water cycle, public lighting and other activities. A2A S.p.A  has a strong presence in the North of Italy.

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A2A SpA (A2A IM)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

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