Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  </li>
<li>A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".</li>
<li>A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.</li>
</ul>



AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  
A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".
A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>AAG Energy (2686) exhibits a clear wedge range to trade with an intermediate positive outcome as long as lower wedge support stands up near outlined 1.50 support.</li>
<li>The intermediate cycle favors a bullish outcome as long as lower pattern support holds true. Wedge still needs time to mature.</li>
<li>1.70 is the level to clear for bull traction. Risk to 1.40 region if we fail to hold lower wedge support at 1.48.</li>
</ul>


AAG Energy (2686) exhibits a clear wedge range to trade with an intermediate positive outcome as long as lower wedge support stands up near outlined 1.50 support.
The intermediate cycle favors a bullish outcome as long as lower pattern support holds true. Wedge still needs time to mature.
1.70 is the level to clear for bull traction. Risk to 1.40 region if we fail to hold lower wedge support at 1.48.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th May, PRC department store play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-retail-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:470:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle (3308 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.</li>
<li>The Offeror is the Wang family, who together with concert parties, held 80.29%. 7.18% of the 19.71% held by the disinterested stakeholders have given irrevocables in favour of the Scheme.</li>
<li>Ahead of the Scheme Meeting on September 15th, a significant amount of shares have moved out of CCASS. This is not something to concern investors. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th May, PRC department store play Golden Eagle (3308 HK) announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.
The Offeror is the Wang family, who together with concert parties, held 80.29%. 7.18% of the 19.71% held by the disinterested stakeholders have given irrevocables in favour of the Scheme.
Ahead of the Scheme Meeting on September 15th, a significant amount of shares have moved out of CCASS. This is not something to concern investors. 


Golden Eagle (3308 HK): CCASS Movements Are Standard Fare

Sino Oil And Gas Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Troubled coalbed methane play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-oil-and-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9982:1" rel="noopener">Sino Oil And Gas Holdings (702 HK)</a> is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. </li>
<li>Sino Oil is burdened with a large convertible note and a winding-up petition.  Its auditor has disclaimed accounts since 2017 over its ability to continue as a going concern.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangxi-jovo-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36788" rel="noopener">Jiangxi Jovo Energy (605090 CH)</a> is interested in taking more than 50% of Sino Oil (via new shares), but less than 75%. Sino Oil is up &gt;100% in the past month. </li>
</ul>


Troubled coalbed methane play Sino Oil And Gas Holdings (702 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
Sino Oil is burdened with a large convertible note and a winding-up petition.  Its auditor has disclaimed accounts since 2017 over its ability to continue as a going concern.

Jiangxi Jovo Energy (605090 CH) is interested in taking more than 50% of Sino Oil (via new shares), but less than 75%. Sino Oil is up &gt;100% in the past month. 


Sino Oil (702): Possible Jiangxi Jovo Offer

Hong Kong

AAG Energy Holdings Limited is  an energy exploration and development company. The Company engages in coalbed methane exploration and development.

Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

AAG Energy is cheap. But as one reader pointed out - "I just don't know what's going on". I'd second that. This is an avoid.

David Blennerhassett

AAG Energy (2686) Favors Buying Weakness

AAG Energy (2686) exhibits a clear wedge range to trade with an intermediate positive outcome as long as lower wedge support stands up near...

Thomas Schroeder

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

Golden Eagle (3308 HK): CCASS Movements Are Standard Fare

There's probably enough here for the deal to get up. But with a <2% gross spread and mindful of the recent AGAINST vote in the Dali Foods Group...

David Blennerhassett

Sino Oil (702): Possible Jiangxi Jovo Offer

Troubled coalbed methane play Sino Oil And Gas Holdings (702 HK) is suspended, again, pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. This...

David Blennerhassett