European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The $26.00/share cash offer of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thermo-fisher-scientific-inc-49322cfa-b354-4c3d-ac3b-f4e91aead32b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26834:1" rel="noopener">Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN)</a> for Swedish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olink-holding-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36991:1" rel="noopener">Olink Holding (OLK US)</a> started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.</li>
<li>The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float. </li>
<li>Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.</li>
</ul>


The $26.00/share cash offer of Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN) for Swedish Olink Holding (OLK US) started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.
The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float. 
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

United Kingdom

Abcam PLC produces and distributes research-grade antibodies via an online catalog.  The Company's customers include universities, research institutes, and pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in countries around the world.

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Abcam PLC (ABC LN)

Start of Tender Offer

Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Start of Tender Offer

​Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...