External broker reports(aggregated public sources), International Securities

International Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

International Securities’ equity research analysis and advisory have been a vital source of market intelligence for our distinguished clients over the years. The equity research team’s main objective is to cover listed equities and to provide thoughtful, insightful, differentiated and timely research that can help clients make informed decisions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADCB reported 1Q24 shareholder’s profit of AED1.9bn, in-line with estimates, up 11% YoY but down 3.3% QoQ, after adjusting on-off gains reported in 4Q23</li><li>Lower than expected net interest income was offset by higher-than-expected non-interest income and lower operating expenses. Provisions and corporate tax came in-line with estimates</li><li>Maintain Buy with fair value of AED10.10/sh, implying a 22% upside from current levels, as stock valuation looks compelling at 0.9x PB and 8.0x FY24e PE with a dividend yield of 6.0%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ADCB reported 1Q24 shareholder’s profit of AED1.9bn, in-line with estimates, up 11% YoY but down 3.3% QoQ, after adjusting on-off gains reported in 4Q23Lower than expected net interest income was offset by higher-than-expected non-interest income and lower operating expenses. Provisions and corporate tax came in-line with estimatesMaintain Buy with fair value of AED10.10/sh, implying a 22% upside from current levels, as stock valuation looks compelling at 0.9x PB and 8.0x FY24e PE with a dividend yield of 6.0%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ADCB 1Q24 Review: Core Profits up 11% YoY (-3.3% QoQ), In-Line with Estimates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect FAB to report shareholder’s profit of AED3.45bn in 1Q24e, down 6.5% YoY and down 5.4% QoQ, as a result of the implementation of new UAE corporate tax.</li><li>Net interest income should improve QoQ, but non-interest income could fall YoY and QoQ.</li><li>Net interest income should grow 3.9% QoQ to AED4.9bn, led by a growing loan book and a slight improvement in NIMs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect FAB to report shareholder’s profit of AED3.45bn in 1Q24e, down 6.5% YoY and down 5.4% QoQ, as a result of the implementation of new UAE corporate tax.Net interest income should improve QoQ, but non-interest income could fall YoY and QoQ.Net interest income should grow 3.9% QoQ to AED4.9bn, led by a growing loan book and a slight improvement in NIMs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Growing UAE economy should provide the necessary impetus for the UAE banks to grow locally, whilst the option to expand globally remains open</li><li>UAE banks remain undervalued within the wider GCC market despite better-than-expected performance in FY23, as the impact of the new UAE corporate tax and NIMs contraction as a result of fall in interest rates worry investors</li><li>We remain optimistic on UAE banks as we see earnings to stabilize at current levels after absorbing the impact of UAE corporate tax in FY24 and NIM contraction in FY25; maintain ‘Buy’ on FAB, ENBD and ADCB, and ‘Hold’ on ADIB and DIB</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growing UAE economy should provide the necessary impetus for the UAE banks to grow locally, whilst the option to expand globally remains openUAE banks remain undervalued within the wider GCC market despite better-than-expected performance in FY23, as the impact of the new UAE corporate tax and NIMs contraction as a result of fall in interest rates worry investorsWe remain optimistic on UAE banks as we see earnings to stabilize at current levels after absorbing the impact of UAE corporate tax in FY24 and NIM contraction in FY25; maintain ‘Buy’ on FAB, ENBD and ADCB, and ‘Hold’ on ADIB and DIBContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>We expect ADNOC Drilling to post 4Q23e profits of USD263mn, up 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.</li>
<li>Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.</li>
<li>We expect total rig count to reach 129 rigs, compared to 124 rigs and 115 rigs in 3Q23 and 4Q22, respectively.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We expect ADNOC Drilling to post 4Q23e profits of USD263mn, up 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.
Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.
We expect total rig count to reach 129 rigs, compared to 124 rigs and 115 rigs in 3Q23 and 4Q22, respectively.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.</li>
<li>MENA stocks have benefitted from rotation, led by Saudi Aramco,  Emaar Properties and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saudi-basic-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27316:1" rel="noopener">Saudi Basic Industries</a>
</li>
<li>Outside of MENA, South Africa remains an important destination, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dino-polska-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27637:1" rel="noopener">Dino Polska SA (DNP PW)</a> and MOL are favoured in Eastern Europe</li>
</ul>


We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.
MENA stocks have benefitted from rotation, led by Saudi Aramco,  Emaar Properties and Saudi Basic Industries

Outside of MENA, South Africa remains an important destination, whilst Dino Polska SA (DNP PW) and MOL are favoured in Eastern Europe


United Arab Emirates

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank P.J.S.C. operates as a bank. The Bank offers consumer wholesale banking, treasury, and investment services. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank serves customers in the United Arab Emirates.

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Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC (ADCB UH)

ADCB 1Q24 Review: Core Profits up 11% YoY (-3.3% QoQ), In-Line with Estimates

ADCB reported 1Q24 shareholder’s profit of AED1.9bn, in-line with estimates, up 11% YoY but down 3.3% QoQ, after adjusting on-off gains reported in...

International Securities

1Q24 Quarterly Result Previews

We expect FAB to report shareholder’s profit of AED3.45bn in 1Q24e, down 6.5% YoY and down 5.4% QoQ, as a result of the implementation of new UAE...

International Securities

UAE Banks: Keep calm and carry on

Growing UAE economy should provide the necessary impetus for the UAE banks to grow locally, whilst the option to expand globally remains open

International Securities

4Q23 Quarterly Result Previews

Our 4Q23e result would take FY23e profit to USD967mn, up 21% YoY and towards the high end of the management’s guided range of USD850mnUSD1bn.

International Securities

Replacing Russia: EMEA Stock Screening

We identify stocks in the EMEA region that are filling the void created by Russia's removal from financial markets in 2022.

Steven Holden

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