European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>During the acceptance period, 73.53% of the shares were tendered or committed, below the 80% minimum acceptance threshold that allows to sideline the holdouts (Moneta and others are seeking €70/share).</li>
<li>Tomorrow, 8 June, would be the last day for the offer to be declared unconditional. The minimum acceptance condition has to be waived (with prior written approval from the Boards).</li>
<li>The share price has rebounded by c.11% over the last three trading sessions. Gross spread is 1.7%. 27 June would be the last day of a hypothetical post-tender acceptance period.</li>
</ul>


During the acceptance period, 73.53% of the shares were tendered or committed, below the 80% minimum acceptance threshold that allows to sideline the holdouts (Moneta and others are seeking €70/share).
Tomorrow, 8 June, would be the last day for the offer to be declared unconditional. The minimum acceptance condition has to be waived (with prior written approval from the Boards).
The share price has rebounded by c.11% over the last three trading sessions. Gross spread is 1.7%. 27 June would be the last day of a hypothetical post-tender acceptance period.


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Channel checks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merida-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12226:1" rel="noopener">Merida Industry (9914 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9014:1" rel="noopener">Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT)</a> on the Asia order book provide color on Shimano's results so far. </li>
<li>Channel checks with the Dutch <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/accell-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21089:1" rel="noopener">Accell Group (ACCEL NA)</a> also do not show any encouraging data either. </li>
<li>Share buyback will provide short term relief but it won't make revenue growth rate to be as high as early 2021. </li>
</ul>


Channel checks with Merida Industry (9914 TT) and Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT) on the Asia order book provide color on Shimano's results so far. 
Channel checks with the Dutch Accell Group (ACCEL NA) also do not show any encouraging data either. 
Share buyback will provide short term relief but it won't make revenue growth rate to be as high as early 2021. 


Shimano (7309): Bumpy Part 2 - Channel Checks

<ul>
<li>The 25% premium, €58/share offer implies an equity value of €1,556.5mn and EV of €1,712mn, which represents <strong>12.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA</strong> (vs. 12.2x EV/LTM EBITDA comparable transactions) and 18.3x Fwd P/E. </li>
<li>Minimum acceptance level of at least 95%, automatically adjusted to 80% in case GM approves it. The offeror intends to squeeze-out/delist as soon as practicable.</li>
<li>Median implied share price across multiples is €56.37/share. On this basis, the offer price seems full. Gross spread is 0.34%, a bit tight. The market does not expect any counteroffer.</li>
</ul>


The 25% premium, €58/share offer implies an equity value of €1,556.5mn and EV of €1,712mn, which represents 12.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 12.2x EV/LTM EBITDA comparable transactions) and 18.3x Fwd P/E. 
Minimum acceptance level of at least 95%, automatically adjusted to 80% in case GM approves it. The offeror intends to squeeze-out/delist as soon as practicable.
Median implied share price across multiples is €56.37/share. On this basis, the offer price seems full. Gross spread is 0.34%, a bit tight. The market does not expect any counteroffer.


Netherlands

Accell Group NV designs and manufactures racing, children's, hybrid, mountain, electric, and luxury bicycles.  The Company manufactures its bikes under the brands Batavus, Hercules, Koga-Miyata, Lapierre, Mercier, Loekie, Sparta and Winora.  Accell also makes bicycle accessories and fitness equipment.  The Company markets its products in Northern and Central Europe.

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