European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.</li>
<li>Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.</li>
<li>Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.</li>
</ul>


Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.
Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.
Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.


Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

<ul>
<li>Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.</li>
<li>Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.</li>
</ul>


Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.


Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.</li>
<li>
It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40% from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,</li>
</ul>


Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.

It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40% from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).
Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,


Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Spain

Acciona S.A. is a global developer and service provider of solutions in renewable energy, large civil infrastructures and water treatment and reverse osmosis desalination.  The Company has sustainable development at the heart of its strategy.

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Acciona SA (ANA SM)

Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Acciona now owns 91.11% of Acciona Energía, yet the stock still trades below IPO despite asset sales at stronger private-market valuations....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Acciona now owns 91.11% of Acciona Energía, yet the stock still trades below IPO despite asset sales at stronger private-market valuations....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...