Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>UniCredit has secured 47.6% of Commerzbank's share capital after its exchange offer, giving it almost 50% of voting rights and bringing de facto control within reach, pending regulatory approvals.</li>
<li>Independent shareholder participation was below 2%, yet the offer achieved its strategic objective by converting economic exposure into voting rights and significantly strengthening UniCredit's governance position.</li>
<li>We raise our probability-weighted valuation to €40.6 as the investment case increasingly depends on governance and eventual control rather than the economics of the current exchange offer.</li>
</ul>


UniCredit has secured 47.6% of Commerzbank's share capital after its exchange offer, giving it almost 50% of voting rights and bringing de facto control within reach, pending regulatory approvals.
Independent shareholder participation was below 2%, yet the offer achieved its strategic objective by converting economic exposure into voting rights and significantly strengthening UniCredit's governance position.
We raise our probability-weighted valuation to €40.6 as the investment case increasingly depends on governance and eventual control rather than the economics of the current exchange offer.


UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Offer Failed, the Strategy Succeeded

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

Spain

ACS, Actividades de Construccion y Servicios, S.A. is an engineering and contracting company that develops civil and industrial infrastructures. The Company provides Civil Works Construction, Greenfield Concession Development, Industrial Services (electricity, oil and gas) and Environmental Services (waste treatment and facility management).

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios

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ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (ACS SM)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Offer Failed, the Strategy Succeeded

UniCredit's offer won little support from independent shareholders but achieved its strategic objective. The story now centres on governance,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Offer Failed, the Strategy Succeeded

UniCredit's offer won little support from independent shareholders but achieved its strategic objective. The story now centres on governance,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...