Managing Partner, Ampersand Investment Advisors

Rahul Singh

Managing Partner

Ampersand Investment Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth expectations. While we expected a correction, it came from completely unexpected quarters. The beneficiaries from the favorable macro tidings (monsoons, pay commission) in what was supposed to be a very strong 2HFY17 have suffered a setback post-demonetization. This prompts us to re-evaluate our sector and market cap preferences in this edition of the Ampersand newsletter.

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth expectations. While we expected a correction, it came from completely unexpected quarters. The beneficiaries from the favorable macro tidings (monsoons, pay commission) in what was supposed to be a very strong 2HFY17 have suffered a setback post-demonetization. This prompts us to re-evaluate our sector and market cap preferences in this edition of the Ampersand newsletter.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of global greenfield investment remain disproportionately large.Examination of large OBOR-resident firms and the composition of their assets and revenues show that many firms in the region remain much more dependent on Chinese sales than do Chinese firms on foreign-earned sales.  Nonetheless, the diversion of Chinese investment from domestic to overseas (as China rebalances its domestic growth away from domestic investment) could potentially shift this dynamic.  Large Chinese firms leading the charge abroad tend to belong to the Transport and Storage and Computer Equipment sectors.Meanwhile, large firms resident in OBOR tend already to be much more dependent on foreign-earned revenue; some of those more dependent on Chinese domestic demand  rather than regional demand may experience fallout from China's rebalancing.  Others exposed to growth elsewhere in the region may benefit, or themselves become targets for Chinese cross-border acquisitions within the region.

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of global greenfield investment remain disproportionately large.Examination of large OBOR-resident firms and the composition of their assets and revenues show that many firms in the region remain much more dependent on Chinese sales than do Chinese firms on foreign-earned sales.  Nonetheless, the diversion of Chinese investment from domestic to overseas (as China rebalances its domestic growth away from domestic investment) could potentially shift this dynamic.  Large Chinese firms leading the charge abroad tend to belong to the Transport and Storage and Computer Equipment sectors.Meanwhile, large firms resident in OBOR tend already to be much more dependent on foreign-earned revenue; some of those more dependent on Chinese domestic demand  rather than regional demand may experience fallout from China's rebalancing.  Others exposed to growth elsewhere in the region may benefit, or themselves become targets for Chinese cross-border acquisitions within the region.

Silk Roads Part 3: China and OBOR Investment

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

India

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

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Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and...

Manu Bhaskaran

Silk Roads Part 3: China and OBOR Investment

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of...

Naomi Fink

Bank Credit Growth: Wrong Diagnosis ?

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the...

Asia Advisors

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taking Fresh Guard - Nov 16 Newsletter

We have been incessantly cautioning for a corrective phase in our stock markets mainly due to excessive valuations based of unrealistic growth...

Ampersand Investment Advisors

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and...

Manu Bhaskaran

Silk Roads Part 3: China and OBOR Investment

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of...

Naomi Fink

Bank Credit Growth: Wrong Diagnosis ?

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the...

Asia Advisors