Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Fashion retailers continue to rely on third-party platforms, especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP),</a> to sell online but the scale of investment in direct mobile and web is growing. With Baycrews alone seeing customers that shop both online and in stores hitting 52% of all customers and spending 3.7 times more than store-only customers, it is not hard to see why.While there is no likelihood of direct sales taking significant share from the major online malls anytime soon, it is also true that the biggest competitive threat to the big three malls plus Zozo isn't another mall but the determination of fashion retailers and brands to wrest more control of online. On advantage they do have is experience of running retail stores and re opening more stores branded with the online shop name to increase awareness and cross-use.With one fashion retailer seeing the average annual purchase value of cross-use users 3.7 times that of store-only users, an astonishingly high difference, it is no surprise there is momentum to invest more in direct online sales.

Fashion retailers continue to rely on third-party platforms, especially ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), to sell online but the scale of investment in direct mobile and web is growing. With Baycrews alone seeing customers that shop both online and in stores hitting 52% of all customers and spending 3.7 times more than store-only customers, it is not hard to see why.While there is no likelihood of direct sales taking significant share from the major online malls anytime soon, it is also true that the biggest competitive threat to the big three malls plus Zozo isn't another mall but the determination of fashion retailers and brands to wrest more control of online. On advantage they do have is experience of running retail stores and re opening more stores branded with the online shop name to increase awareness and cross-use.With one fashion retailer seeing the average annual purchase value of cross-use users 3.7 times that of store-only users, an astonishingly high difference, it is no surprise there is momentum to invest more in direct online sales.

Japanese Fashion Retailers Advance Online Investment

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 5th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/987/original/image_46394735821617656683433.png?1617656684" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198987"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> had a third-successive positive quarter, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kewpie-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10681:1" rel="noopener">Kewpie (2809 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adastria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11895:1" rel="noopener">Adastria (2685 JP)</a> had double-digit year-on-year sales declines, and drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/create-sd-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12945:1" rel="noopener">Create SD (3148 JP)</a> saw profits decline.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/989/original/image_51513331531617657092402.png?1617657093" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198989"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/990/original/image_56921939741617657150504.png?1617657151" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198990"></figure>• LARGER CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL • <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/991/original/image_89489650351617657220460.png?1617657221" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198991"></figure>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Adastria offset its weak results with a bullish FY22 forecast, as did restaurant chain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichibanya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2914:1" rel="noopener">Ichibanya (7630 JP)</a>. Shimamura's interim forecast was much more bullish than for the full year. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:209:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Steel (5406 JP)</a> revised up further into the black, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12002:1" rel="noopener">JINS (3046 JP)</a> revised its interim and full-year sales and operating income slightly lower.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/992/original/image_65197346461617657668077.png?1617657668" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198992"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/993/original/image_33740867171617657704461.png?1617657705" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198993"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 5th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227 JP) had a third-successive positive quarter, while Kewpie (2809 JP) and Adastria (2685 JP) had double-digit year-on-year sales declines, and drugstore Create SD (3148 JP) saw profits decline.• LARGER CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Adastria offset its weak results with a bullish FY22 forecast, as did restaurant chain Ichibanya (7630 JP). Shimamura's interim forecast was much more bullish than for the full year. Kobe Steel (5406 JP) revised up further into the black, while JINS (3046 JP) revised its interim and full-year sales and operating income slightly lower.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​05 - Shimamura & JINS

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> which lags behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">  and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) which lags behind Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)  and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come.

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

Only 35 new SCs are expected to open this year, the lowest number in more than two decades and five of these will be rebuilds of other shopping facilities. At the same time, the character of new malls is changing, with dining making up 24% of new sales last year, up nine points, and merchandise tenancies accounting for only just over half. There are serious implications for the wider retail industry, particularly fashion and lifestyle specialty chains.

Only 35 new SCs are expected to open this year, the lowest number in more than two decades and five of these will be rebuilds of other shopping facilities. At the same time, the character of new malls is changing, with dining making up 24% of new sales last year, up nine points, and merchandise tenancies accounting for only just over half. There are serious implications for the wider retail industry, particularly fashion and lifestyle specialty chains.

Japan Shopping Mall Development Stalls in 2021

Japan

and ST HD Co Ltd operates a chain of clothing stores in Japan. The Company also operates stores in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea.

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And ST HD Co Ltd (2685 JP)

Japanese Fashion Retailers Advance Online Investment

The major competitor for the major online malls in the Japanese fashion market, like Zozo and Rakuten, isn't another online mall but the growing...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/05 - Shimamura & JINS

RESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227...

Campbell Gunn

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

Japan Shopping Mall Development Stalls in 2021

The collapse in new shopping mall development in Japan does not just affect real estate developers but also the wider retail industry, especially...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Fashion Retailers Advance Online Investment

The major competitor for the major online malls in the Japanese fashion market, like Zozo and Rakuten, isn't another online mall but the growing...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​05 - Shimamura & JINS

RESULTS - Of Friday's 23 results, only 10 scored positively; however, 73% of annual revisions were positive. Of the larger caps, Shimamura (8227...

Campbell Gunn

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

Japan Shopping Mall Development Stalls in 2021

The collapse in new shopping mall development in Japan does not just affect real estate developers but also the wider retail industry, especially...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/05 - Shimamura & JINS