IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). </li>
<li>The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. </li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. </li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe it is likely for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> to reach its full-year EBITDA guidance for FY03/20. However, we remain bearish, as we expect Recruit to feel the full impact of COVID-19 from 1Q FY03/21 onwards. Both global and domestic labour markets have weakened since March and the demand for online advertising remains low with the disruption of economic activities.</p>

We believe it is likely for Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) to reach its full-year EBITDA guidance for FY03/20. However, we remain bearish, as we expect Recruit to feel the full impact of COVID-19 from 1Q FY03/21 onwards. Both global and domestic labour markets have weakened since March and the demand for online advertising remains low with the disruption of economic activities.

Recruit Holdings: Likely to Reach Full-Year Guidance but Bad News Could Be on the Way

Equity Capital Markets

Renrui Human Resources / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renrui-human-resources-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28134:1" rel="noopener">Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK)</a> is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a 2.5% market share. Renrui has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$971 million ($124 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/renrui-hr-technology-ipo-initiation-not-the-perfect-candidate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that on the surface, Renrui appears to be heading in the right direction as the 1H19 results demonstrated robust growth, margin progression and cash generation. However, a closer look reveals several areas of caution. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price range is unattractive. Consequently, we would not participate in the IPO. </p></div>

Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK) is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a 2.5% market share. Renrui has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$971 million ($124 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range.In our initiation note, we stated that on the surface, Renrui appears to be heading in the right direction as the 1H19 results demonstrated robust growth, margin progression and cash generation. However, a closer look reveals several areas of caution. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price range is unattractive. Consequently, we would not participate in the IPO. 

Renrui HR Technology IPO: Valuation Unappealing

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renrui-human-resources-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28134:1" rel="noopener">Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK)</a> is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a 2.5% market share. Renrui has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$971 million ($124 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>On the surface, Renrui appears to be heading in the right direction as the 1H19 results demonstrated robust growth, margin progression and cash generation. However, a closer look reveals several areas of caution. On balance, we are inclined to err on the side of caution by sitting out this IPO. </p></div>

Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK) is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a 2.5% market share. Renrui has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$971 million ($124 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range.On the surface, Renrui appears to be heading in the right direction as the 1H19 results demonstrated robust growth, margin progression and cash generation. However, a closer look reveals several areas of caution. On balance, we are inclined to err on the side of caution by sitting out this IPO. 

Renrui HR Technology IPO Initiation: Not the Perfect Candidate

Switzerland

Adecco SA is a personnel and temporary employment company.  The Company supplies personnel and temporary help, and offers permanent placement services for professionals and specialists in a range of occupations.  Adecco conducts its placement services internationally.

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Adecco SA (ADEN VX)

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

Despite the 52% premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Meeting the minimum acceptance condition could prove challenging.

Arun George

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Recruit Holdings: Likely to Reach Full-Year Guidance but Bad News Could Be on the Way

We believe it is likely for Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) to reach its full-year EBITDA guidance for FY03/20. However, we remain bearish, as we expect...

Supun Walpola

Renrui HR Technology IPO: Valuation Unappealing

Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK) is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a...

Arun George

Renrui HR Technology IPO Initiation: Not the Perfect Candidate

Renrui Human Resources (6919 HK) is the largest company operating in China’s flexible staffing services market by revenue in 2018, accounting for a...

Arun George

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