External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24</li><li>However, beneath the averages lies the rub</li><li>Excluding 3 companies the average drops to sub 10%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24However, beneath the averages lies the rubExcluding 3 companies the average drops to sub 10%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Beneath the Averages Lies the Rub

<ul><li>Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%</li><li>Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectors</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectorsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy: Banks continue to lead the pack; profitability improves for most sectors

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segment</li><li>Reported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexQ4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segmentReported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

<ul><li>Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)</li><li>Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growth</li><li>However, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-reverting</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growthHowever, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-revertingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

<ul><li>Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’s</li><li>Decorative business clocked ~6.6/7.2% volume/value YoY growth (3-year value CAGR: 17.2%)</li><li>Distribution expansion was stepped up (addition of 8k sales points in 9MFY23)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’sDecorative business clocked ~6.6/7.2% volume/value YoY growth (3-year value CAGR: 17.2%)Distribution expansion was stepped up (addition of 8k sales points in 9MFY23)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Berger Paints, Voltas, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Kansai Nerolac

India

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ABFRL) is an Indian fashion retail company offering a diverse portfolio of apparel and non-apparel accessories, including casual wear, formal wear, ethnic wear, and footwear. The company operates prominent brands like Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, and Pantaloons. ABFRL is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 2015.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

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Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

Consumer Discretionary - Beneath the Averages Lies the Rub

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24. However, beneath the averages lies the rub. Excluding 3 companies the average...

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy: Banks continue to lead the pack; profitability improves for most sectors

Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectors

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Berger Paints, Voltas, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Kansai Nerolac

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’s

HDFC Securities

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