Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)'s continued buying in the market.</li>
<li>After the close of market last Friday, LVC held <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0110/2025011000368.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7.8295%</a>, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.</li>
<li>Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They're in for the back-end scrip option.  </li>
</ul>


Ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)'s continued buying in the market.
After the close of market last Friday, LVC held 7.8295%, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.
Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They're in for the back-end scrip option.  


Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won't Block. Buy Here & On Weakness

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6th January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>, the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, <a href="https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&amp;ref=318826893&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=EM&amp;cdn=92fc68ff7b8532b8b229f6ee242a0168&amp;companyName=Smart+Share+Global+Limited&amp;formType=6-K&amp;formDescription=Report+of+foreign+private+issuer+pursuant+to+Rule+13a-16+or+15d-16+under+the+Securities+Exchange+Act+of+1934&amp;dateFiled=2025-01-06" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a preliminary non-binding proposal.</li>
<li>A consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO,  collectively holding 63.4% of the voting rights, have made an Offer at US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. </li>
<li>Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 26.6% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6th January, Smart Share Global (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal.
A consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO,  collectively holding 63.4% of the voting rights, have made an Offer at US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. 
Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 26.6% gross spread.


Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: CC Capital's NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed this week: CC Capital's NBIO for Insignia Financial (IFL AU). 
Key updates/news took place on: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

<ul>
<li>Back on the 20 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vcredit-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27143:1" rel="noopener">VCredit Holdings (2003 HK)</a>, a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.</li>
<li>The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. </li>
<li>VCredit's Composite Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0109/2025010900641.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.
The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. 
VCredit's Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.


VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.</li>
<li>Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. </li>
<li>Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.</li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won't Block. Buy Here & On Weakness

Trading wide at a 11.8% gross spread (using today's opening print) with expected payment around the third week of Feb. That's a buy here. I'd pay...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end - I don't - this is an avoid. No one will tender into this Offer. Nothng to see here.

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

The key reg approvals have been satisfied. Any pullback on Trump blustering is a buy. Trading at a ~3.2% gross return for the Aussie line. That's...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won't Block. Buy Here & On Weakness

Trading wide at a 11.8% gross spread (using today's opening print) with expected payment around the third week of Feb. That's a buy here. I'd pay...

David Blennerhassett

Smart Share Global (EM US)'s MBO NBIO

Should a defintive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end - I don't - this is an avoid. No one will tender into this Offer. Nothng to see here.

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

The key reg approvals have been satisfied. Any pullback on Trump blustering is a buy. Trading at a ~3.2% gross return for the Aussie line. That's...

David Blennerhassett