Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1" rel="noopener">Central Plaza Hotel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.</li>
</ul>



Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.


SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a> and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. </li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.</li>
</ul>


The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.

Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.


DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This insight covers 68 ASEAN utilities, each boasting a market cap greater than US$500mn. </li>
<li>Countries covered include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> remains highly elevated, and is a short against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, and perhaps with some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This insight covers 68 ASEAN utilities, each boasting a market cap greater than US$500mn. 
Countries covered include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) remains highly elevated, and is a short against Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), and perhaps with some Singtel (ST SP).


<ul>
<li>"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."</li>
<li>This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023</li>
<li>This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?</li>
</ul>


"The conditions precedent to the VTO have not been satisfied within one year from 22 November 2021 ... the parties have declined to carry out the VTO."
This statement was lifted from Telenor's (the major shareholder of Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)) brief announcement. Telenor/CP Group aim to complete the transaction within the first quarter of 2023
This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor &amp; CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension.  And why weren't the scrip terms addressed?


Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

There are 4 changes for the SET50 Index in Dec, all in line with forecasts. Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days ADV on the adds...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

The Court ruling removes an impediment to the merger. Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of...

Arun George

ASEAN Utilities: From Tap To Socket

I'd be shorting Intouch Holdings' shares here, and going long Advanced Info Service Public, along with some Singapore Telecom.

David Blennerhassett

Disaster As VTOs Cancelled Under DTAC/True Merger

This appears a cop-out on behalf of both Tender Offerors (Telenor & CP Group), who probably could have pushed for an extension. And why weren't...

David Blennerhassett

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

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