Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that would benefit (or be adversely affected) by them, namely: 1) an ageing society; 2) higher concentration of wealth; 3) driverless cars for ride hailing; 4) increasing fintech adoption by incumbents; and 5) a decline in both labor cost and commodity prices.We may have discussed most of these themes before, though we've never put them in one place. As they say in investing, gotta watch where the puck is going, not where it is.

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that would benefit (or be adversely affected) by them, namely: 1) an ageing society; 2) higher concentration of wealth; 3) driverless cars for ride hailing; 4) increasing fintech adoption by incumbents; and 5) a decline in both labor cost and commodity prices.We may have discussed most of these themes before, though we've never put them in one place. As they say in investing, gotta watch where the puck is going, not where it is.

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy &amp; Business Development of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/214" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1">Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB)</a>, and we found it pretty interesting. Basically, his view is that fintech has been around since the 50s, and in his view, we are on the third wave...There's something with the number three. I recall someone else (maybe Microsoft CEO Nadella) saying we are on the third Industrial or Digital Revolution. Well, let's just indulge the…

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy &amp; Business Development of Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB), and we found it pretty interesting. Basically, his view is that fintech has been around since the 50s, and in his view, we are on the third wave...There's something with the number three. I recall someone else (maybe Microsoft CEO Nadella) saying we are on the third Industrial or Digital Revolution. Well, let's just indulge the…

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

There's no secret that TKS is one of MCorp Review's top picks and most important holdings in our portfolio thanks to the virtues of linerless label which we tried to quantify in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-ix-what-has-more-upside-in-thailand-innovative-products-adders-or-deals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14108">Reality Check IX: What Has More Upside in Thailand: Innovative Products, Adders, or Deals?</a> But TKS is also a holding company. A. Stotz has mentioned the virtues of their portfolio holdings SYNEX in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-apple-and-samsung-should-drive-2017-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14455">SYNEX: Apple and Samsung Should Drive 2017 Growth</a>. In this review, we visit the other portfolio company, namely Thai-British…

There's no secret that TKS is one of MCorp Review's top picks and most important holdings in our portfolio thanks to the virtues of linerless label which we tried to quantify in Reality Check IX: What Has More Upside in Thailand: Innovative Products, Adders, or Deals? But TKS is also a holding company. A. Stotz has mentioned the virtues of their portfolio holdings SYNEX in SYNEX: Apple and Samsung Should Drive 2017 Growth. In this review, we visit the other portfolio company, namely Thai-British…

Thai British: Looking Under That TKS Hood

Equity Capital Markets

Information & Communication Networks / Equity Capital Markets

Information & Communication Networks (ICN TB)

ICN or Information &amp; Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of their shares as future free float, and it will be a small cap trading on the MAI. If it trades in line with other small network contractors (but not this small!), its fair price would be Bt2.1/sh, but given its unproven status, we would only invest if the IPO price ranges between Bt0.83/sh to Bt0.96/sh yo.The company tries to piggyback on Nokia Siemens, a behemoth global network company where it has long-standing relations, though it has hedged its bets by doing some biz with Huawei and others too. Half of their business comes from public sector, but we're betting they can get something out of DTAC's rapid expansion should the 2.3GHz project go through as planned.

ICN or Information &amp; Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of their shares as future free float, and it will be a small cap trading on the MAI. If it trades in line with other small network contractors (but not this small!), its fair price would be Bt2.1/sh, but given its unproven status, we would only invest if the IPO price ranges between Bt0.83/sh to Bt0.96/sh yo.The company tries to piggyback on Nokia Siemens, a behemoth global network company where it has long-standing relations, though it has hedged its bets by doing some biz with Huawei and others too. Half of their business comes from public sector, but we're betting they can get something out of DTAC's rapid expansion should the 2.3GHz project go through as planned.

IPO Radar: ICN, Nokia Siemens' Best Buddy

We met up with two companies last week. They couldn’t have less in common apart from the lack of revenue growth yo. Having said that, a lot of things could change to make them look more interesting in the future since the valuations are not expensive relative to where the market trades at the moment (roughly 14x). One is an Indian petrochem manufacturer listed in Thailand called Polyplex, while the other is a local network contractor we may have discussed in passing called AIT (Advanced…

We met up with two companies last week. They couldn’t have less in common apart from the lack of revenue growth yo. Having said that, a lot of things could change to make them look more interesting in the future since the valuations are not expensive relative to where the market trades at the moment (roughly 14x). One is an Indian petrochem manufacturer listed in Thailand called Polyplex, while the other is a local network contractor we may have discussed in passing called AIT (Advanced…

Thailand

Advanced Information Technology Public Company Limited provides integrated information and communication technology (ICT) services and solutions. The company specializes in designing, installing, and maintaining computer systems and communication networks, offering turnkey projects that include hardware, software, and network equipment. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1992.

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Advanced Information Technology (AIT TB)

Five Big Ideas for the Next Five Years

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Silicon Sequel: SCB on Fintech

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy & Business Development of Siam...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai British: Looking Under That TKS Hood

There's no secret that TKS is one of MCorp Review's top picks and most important holdings in our portfolio thanks to the virtues of linerless label...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

IPO Radar: ICN, Nokia Siemens' Best Buddy

ICN or Information & Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Small Cap Diary: Elusive Revenue Growth

We met up with two companies last week. They couldn’t have less in common apart from the lack of revenue growth yo. Having said that, a lot of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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