Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relative underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>  versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a>  over the last decade should reverse.  We discuss what it would take in the note.</li>
<li>Intel leads in number and quality of innovations versus AMD in core areas of Design and Manufacturing, but AMD's use of TSMC has been a huge part of AMD's outperformance</li>
<li>If Intel adapts to new realities and uses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>  for next-gen products, outperformance versus AMD is highly likely otherwise given TSMC's very significant lead in manufacturing very doubtful. </li>
</ul>


Relative underperformance of Intel Corp (INTC US)  versus Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)  over the last decade should reverse.  We discuss what it would take in the note.
Intel leads in number and quality of innovations versus AMD in core areas of Design and Manufacturing, but AMD's use of TSMC has been a huge part of AMD's outperformance
If Intel adapts to new realities and uses TSMC (2330 TT)  for next-gen products, outperformance versus AMD is highly likely otherwise given TSMC's very significant lead in manufacturing very doubtful. 


Long Intel/Short AMD; Analysis of Technical Publications Suggests TSMC Will Play a Critical Role

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22.</li>
<li>We estimate it could be a slight positive growth in 2022, which could reach NT$18.1bn/32.5% for revenue/GM respectively.</li>
<li>Phison and its competitors shall continuously strive in Flash card and the related business.</li>
</ul>


Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22.
We estimate it could be a slight positive growth in 2022, which could reach NT$18.1bn/32.5% for revenue/GM respectively.
Phison and its competitors shall continuously strive in Flash card and the related business.


Phison (8299.TT): 2Q22 Could Expect a Slightly Growth QoQ

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.</li>
<li>It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.</li>
<li>There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. </li>
<li>Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.</li>
<li>Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic</li>
</ul>


Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. 
Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.
Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Long Intel/Short AMD; Analysis of Technical Publications Suggests TSMC Will Play a Critical Role

We analyze the relative innovation strengths of Intel and AMD in design and manufacture and how much ahead TSMC is in manufacturing innovations...

Pyari Menon

Phison (8299.TT): 2Q22 Could Expect a Slightly Growth QoQ

Phison reached to NT$17.1bn, 32%, 14% and NT$10.49 for revenue, GM, NM and the Diluted EPS in 1Q22. We estimate it could reach NT$18.1bn and 32.5%...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC will raise wafer price about 6% for all product lines since the beginning of 2023. It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be...

Patrick Liao

Intel 1Q22: Unexplained Optimism

Intel maintained its full year guidance and increased its EPS by $0.10 despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back...

Aaron Gabin

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

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