Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, down 11% QoQ but up 2% YoY.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, AMD forecasted the current quarter revenues of $5.7 billion, up 3.6% sequentially.</li>
<li>Share price down 7% in AH and down 35% from its recent 52 week high. We could see it retest the $100 level in the coming months</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, down 11% QoQ but up 2% YoY.
Looking ahead, AMD forecasted the current quarter revenues of $5.7 billion, up 3.6% sequentially.
Share price down 7% in AH and down 35% from its recent 52 week high. We could see it retest the $100 level in the coming months


<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY</li>
<li>Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.</li>
<li>We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of &gt;70% YoY with potential for further upside</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY
Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.
We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of &gt;70% YoY with potential for further upside


AMD. This Party's Just Getting Started...

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

<ul>
<li>AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. </li>
</ul>


AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022
FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 


AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD. It's A Marathon, Not A Sprint

Q124 revenues of $5.5 billion, -11% QoQ , +2% YoY. Q224 forecast $5.7 billion, +3.6% QoQ. Shares down 7% AH, down 35% from 52 week high. One senes...

William Keating

AMD. This Party's Just Getting Started...

Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, +6% QoQ, +10% YoY. Q124 $5.4 billion,-13% QoQ & flat YoY. We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of >70% YoY with...

William Keating

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

Despite FY23 revenues on track to decline ~4% YoY, we expect a combination of renewed DC market share growth + a grand entrance to the AI...

William Keating