Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading</li>
<li>H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.


AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.</li>
<li>Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.</li>
<li>Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.</li>
</ul>


4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.
Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.
Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.


AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.

<ul>
<li>AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible</li>
<li>Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high</li>
<li>AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform </li>
</ul>


AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 


<ul>
<li>3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.</li>
<li>2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.</li>
<li>Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.
2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.
Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.


AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.


[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.

Article highlights 4Q24 performance, upcoming GPU launch in 2025, and CEO's bullish outlook on Data Center AI revenue growth. Stock correction...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MarketVectors US Semiconductor Index rebal was announced last Friday. There are no changes but capping leads to US$1.3bn of one-way flow on 20...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better,...

William Keating

AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.

​Article highlights 4Q24 performance, upcoming GPU launch in 2025, and CEO's bullish outlook on Data Center AI revenue growth. Stock correction...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MarketVectors US Semiconductor Index rebal was announced last Friday. There are no changes but capping leads to US$1.3bn of one-way flow on 20...

Travis Lundy

Article highlights 4Q24 performance, upcoming GPU launch in 2025, and CEO's bullish outlook on Data Center AI revenue growth. Stock correction...