Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/notes-from-the-silk-road-small-mid-cap-screening-for-zulu-warriors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20886">Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors</a>). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November. 
</li>
<li>
<li>
The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.</li>
<li>
The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.</li>
<li>
Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.</li>
<li>
Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.</li>
<li>
Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.</li>
</ul>



Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November. 



The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.

The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.

Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.

Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.

Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.


Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

MARKET COMPOSITE<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/799/original/2018-12-22_16-48-37.png?1545464931" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73799"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>TRADING ZONE - As of last Friday, the Japan All Market Composite has now entered a bear market, having declined by 20% from the January 23rd high if Y757t. At the close, only 8% by number and 11% by value of Japanese stocks were trading above their weighted composite of 5, 20, 60, 120, and 240-day moving averages. These were the lowest closing values since February 2016 when the All Market Composite reached a low of Y475tand  offer an entry point for a short-term trade for those happy to hold over the extended New Year Holiday period.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/800/original/2018-12-22_16-49-53.png?1545465006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73800"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/801/original/2018-12-22_16-52-17.png?1545465147" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73801"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>BREAKOUTS -  The 'Breaking Bad' percentage reached 11% on December 4th, the tenth-lowest reading in three years bu thas yet to fall below '-15-.  Adding the Breaking Above and Breaking Below percentages together provides a more straightforward view of the 15% threshold that has marked previous short and medium-term turning points, and which again we have yet to reach.<hr> SECTORS<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/804/original/2018-12-22_18-10-04.png?1545469815" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73804"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative 'crossovers'.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days are all, predictably, domestic and defensive -  Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, REITs, Information Technology, Internet, Media and Utilities. Equally predictable are the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment and Chemicals. <hr>COMPANIESCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, out moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/816/original/2018-12-23_15-00-13.png?1545544826" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE 100% CLUB - As of Friday 21st, there were 16 extreme positive outliers and 622 extreme negative outliers. The number of extreme negative outliers suggests we are a short-term bottom.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MARKET COMPOSITESource: Japan AnalyticsTRADING ZONE - As of last Friday, the Japan All Market Composite has now entered a bear market, having declined by 20% from the January 23rd high if Y757t. At the close, only 8% by number and 11% by value of Japanese stocks were trading above their weighted composite of 5, 20, 60, 120, and 240-day moving averages. These were the lowest closing values since February 2016 when the All Market Composite reached a low of Y475tand  offer an entry point for a short-term trade for those happy to hold over the extended New Year Holiday period.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUTS -  The 'Breaking Bad' percentage reached 11% on December 4th, the tenth-lowest reading in three years bu thas yet to fall below '-15-.  Adding the Breaking Above and Breaking Below percentages together provides a more straightforward view of the 15% threshold that has marked previous short and medium-term turning points, and which again we have yet to reach. SECTORSLEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative 'crossovers'.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days are all, predictably, domestic and defensive -  Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, REITs, Information Technology, Internet, Media and Utilities. Equally predictable are the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment and Chemicals. COMPANIESCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, out moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE 100% CLUB - As of Friday 21st, there were 16 extreme positive outliers and 622 extreme negative outliers. The number of extreme negative outliers suggests we are a short-term bottom.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Year-End Blues

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance. 

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. POSITIVE MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS 28TH OCTOBER - Of the positive outlier identified last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a> has since declined by 3% and is still overbought with a Relative Price Score of 4.65. The interim results released on 6th November show a slowing of earnings momentum scoring '4' compared to a score of '9' the previous quarter. We continue to advise profit taking. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/394/original/2018-11-11_15-13-17.png?1541916831" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69394"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/395/original/2018-11-11_15-14-13.png?1541916865" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69395"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>NEGATIVE MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS 28TH OCTOBER - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9990" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9990:1">Shima Seiki (6222 JP)</a> which was the most extreme negative outlier recovered 9% but is still the third-most oversold large cap. Of our so=called 'Fallen Angels', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> rose by 25% after good results and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> recovered by 13%. Both remain overbought are likely to peak out in terms of their share price in the next few months. Of the other Fallen Angels, the best performance was from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14527" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14527:1">Ulvac (6728 JP)</a> which rose 20%, and the worst was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15801" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15801:1">Nippon Gas (8174 JP)</a> which rose 8%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:379:1">Sumco (3436 JP)</a> had the second-best two-week performance after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18107" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1">Advantest (6857 JP)</a> rising by 26% as it Q3 results were very strong, and their initial full-year forecast suggest FYOP will be 10% above TTM OP.  Our two 'bounce-but-fully-priced' stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13316" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1">M3 (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3294" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1">Pigeon (7956 JP)</a> rose by 3% and 11%, respectively although they remain 'Fully Priced'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> was unchanged over the period.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/396/original/2018-11-11_15-39-17.png?1541918405" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69396"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/397/original/2018-11-11_15-39-55.png?1541918418" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69397"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. POSITIVE MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS 28TH OCTOBER - Of the positive outlier identified last week, Workman (7564 JP) has since declined by 3% and is still overbought with a Relative Price Score of 4.65. The interim results released on 6th November show a slowing of earnings momentum scoring '4' compared to a score of '9' the previous quarter. We continue to advise profit taking. Source: Japan AnalyticsNEGATIVE MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS 28TH OCTOBER - Shima Seiki (6222 JP) which was the most extreme negative outlier recovered 9% but is still the third-most oversold large cap. Of our so=called 'Fallen Angels', Lasertec (6920 JP) rose by 25% after good results and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) recovered by 13%. Both remain overbought are likely to peak out in terms of their share price in the next few months. Of the other Fallen Angels, the best performance was from Ulvac (6728 JP) which rose 20%, and the worst was Nippon Gas (8174 JP) which rose 8%. Sumco (3436 JP) had the second-best two-week performance after Advantest (6857 JP) rising by 26% as it Q3 results were very strong, and their initial full-year forecast suggest FYOP will be 10% above TTM OP.  Our two 'bounce-but-fully-priced' stocks M3 (2413 JP) and Pigeon (7956 JP) rose by 3% and 11%, respectively although they remain 'Fully Priced'. Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) was unchanged over the period.Source: Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Results Driven

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

The Trump Administration is reportedly considering controls on exports of semiconductor production equipment as part of its effort to derail Made in China 2025.
A report from Moody's states that such controls would "severely limit China's ability to develop greater self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing," and that "Outside of Applied, Lam and KLA, we believe alternative suppliers of the array of leading-edge semiconductor equipment that Chinese companies need to produce chips do not exist." 
This is not true. In Japan, the most obvious alternative suppliers include Tokyo Electron, Hitachi-High Technologies (8036 JP) and Screen Holdings [formerly Dainippon Screen] (7735 JP).
The Chinese take the threat very seriously, are likely to redouble efforts to develop their semiconductor equipment and materials industry, and are already talking with Japanese and European companies about alternative sources of supply. 
China accounts for about 20% of the total semiconductor equipment market. Stock prices already anticipate the end of the "super-cycle" that began two years ago, but if the Americans implement export controls, the psychological impact and the practical problem of changing suppliers could make things much worse.
Potential market share gains for Tokyo Electron and others would be something to consider once the bad news had been discounted.

The Trump Administration is reportedly considering controls on exports of semiconductor production equipment as part of its effort to derail Made in China 2025.
A report from Moody's states that such controls would "severely limit China's ability to develop greater self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing," and that "Outside of Applied, Lam and KLA, we believe alternative suppliers of the array of leading-edge semiconductor equipment that Chinese companies need to produce chips do not exist." 
This is not true. In Japan, the most obvious alternative suppliers include Tokyo Electron, Hitachi-High Technologies (8036 JP) and Screen Holdings [formerly Dainippon Screen] (7735 JP).
The Chinese take the threat very seriously, are likely to redouble efforts to develop their semiconductor equipment and materials industry, and are already talking with Japanese and European companies about alternative sources of supply. 
China accounts for about 20% of the total semiconductor equipment market. Stock prices already anticipate the end of the "super-cycle" that began two years ago, but if the Americans implement export controls, the psychological impact and the practical problem of changing suppliers could make things much worse.
Potential market share gains for Tokyo Electron and others would be something to consider once the bad news had been discounted.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): To Benefit from Trade War?

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk...

David Lepper

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Year-End Blues

MARKET COMPOSITETRADING ZONE - As of last Friday, the Japan All Market Composite has now entered a bear market, having declined by 20% from the...

Campbell Gunn

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q...

Custom Products Group

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Results Driven

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120...

Campbell Gunn

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): To Benefit from Trade War?

The Trump Administration is reportedly considering controls on exports of semiconductor production equipment as part of its effort to derail Made...

Scott Foster

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