Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Advantest's updated guidance and MTP3 targets confirm its dominant, long-term growth trajectory as a key supplier for the high-performance computing and AI semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Despite a strong structural growth story, the stock faces near-term headwinds from a sequential decline in Q2 operating income and an elevated valuation that reflects peak market optimism.</li>
<li>We suggest a tactical adjustment to vega exposure due to market dynamics, recommending a strategy to monetize the heightened implied and realized volatility following the strong earnings report.</li>
</ul>


Advantest's updated guidance and MTP3 targets confirm its dominant, long-term growth trajectory as a key supplier for the high-performance computing and AI semiconductor supply chain.
Despite a strong structural growth story, the stock faces near-term headwinds from a sequential decline in Q2 operating income and an elevated valuation that reflects peak market optimism.
We suggest a tactical adjustment to vega exposure due to market dynamics, recommending a strategy to monetize the heightened implied and realized volatility following the strong earnings report.


Advantest Q2 FY2025, Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.</li>
<li>Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.</li>
<li>Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  </li>
</ul>


Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.
Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.
Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  


Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

<ul>
<li>Japanese markets saw Advantest and Nintendo poised for growth, with strategic moves impacting their stock performance.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan maintained its policy, influencing the JGB curve and broader market.</li>
<li>Gold's favorable environment, driven by global monetary shifts, presents options market opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Japanese markets saw Advantest and Nintendo poised for growth, with strategic moves impacting their stock performance.
The Bank of Japan maintained its policy, influencing the JGB curve and broader market.
Gold's favorable environment, driven by global monetary shifts, presents options market opportunities.


Whirlwind Japan EOM October for Stocks, Advantest, Nidec, BoJ, Gold, and the Rest

<ul>
<li>Advantest saw a 34% upside after earnings, aligning with previous buy recommendations and its inclusion in the Value Seeker Japan basket for long-term growth.</li>
<li>A small inclusion into TPXC30 occurs today at the close, with Advantest's fundamental outlook remaining in line with our recent insights.</li>
<li>Murata seeing some flows as well today in at the close, and moves to the TPX 70 Large.</li>
</ul>


Advantest saw a 34% upside after earnings, aligning with previous buy recommendations and its inclusion in the Value Seeker Japan basket for long-term growth.
A small inclusion into TPXC30 occurs today at the close, with Advantest's fundamental outlook remaining in line with our recent insights.
Murata seeing some flows as well today in at the close, and moves to the TPX 70 Large.


Advantest Earnings... TPXC30, and Murata...

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>A lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.


Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Advantest Q2 FY2025, Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

Advantest's growth trajectory faces near-term challenges from declining Q2 operating income and high valuation, suggesting a tactical adjustment...

Jay Cameron

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Whirlwind Japan EOM October for Stocks, Advantest, Nidec, BoJ, Gold, and the Rest

Whirlwind October Recap, Japan markets show growth potential for Advantest and Nintendo, Bank of Japan policy impacts JGB curve. Gold offers...

Jay Cameron

Advantest Earnings... TPXC30, and Murata...

Advantest and Murata switch places on TPXC30 and TPX 70 without much impact. Advantest earnings were impactful this week, initially looking in...

Jay Cameron

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Advantest Q2 FY2025, Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

​Advantest's growth trajectory faces near-term challenges from declining Q2 operating income and high valuation, suggesting a tactical adjustment...

Jay Cameron

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Whirlwind Japan EOM October for Stocks, Advantest, Nidec, BoJ, Gold, and the Rest

​Whirlwind October Recap, Japan markets show growth potential for Advantest and Nintendo, Bank of Japan policy impacts JGB curve. Gold offers...

Jay Cameron

Advantest Earnings... TPXC30, and Murata...

​Advantest and Murata switch places on TPXC30 and TPX 70 without much impact. Advantest earnings were impactful this week, initially looking in...

Jay Cameron

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

Advantest's growth trajectory faces near-term challenges from declining Q2 operating income and high valuation, suggesting a tactical adjustment...

Whirlwind October Recap, Japan markets show growth potential for Advantest and Nintendo, Bank of Japan policy impacts JGB curve. Gold offers...

Advantest and Murata switch places on TPXC30 and TPX 70 without much impact. Advantest earnings were impactful this week, initially looking in...