Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Average weights among Frontier market countries stand at a combined 0.86%, with 42.5% of the EM funds in our analysis having some exposure to Frontier.  On a country level, Vietnam dominates, held by 19.6% of funds, followed by Kazakhstan and Panama.The most widely held stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/copa-holdings-sa-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6110:1" rel="noopener">Copa Holdings Sa Class A (CPA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33382:1" rel="noopener">Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI)</a> , with 10.4% and 10% of funds invested respectively.On a fund level, openings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33382:1" rel="noopener">Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI)</a> dominate the picture, with Carmignac Emerging Discovery, Fidelity and BlackRock opening positions, among others.  Closures in Nova Ljubljanska Banka from TT International, Goldman Sachs and Polar Capital are the stand outs.  Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

Average weights among Frontier market countries stand at a combined 0.86%, with 42.5% of the EM funds in our analysis having some exposure to Frontier.  On a country level, Vietnam dominates, held by 19.6% of funds, followed by Kazakhstan and Panama.The most widely held stocks are Copa Holdings Sa Class A (CPA US) and Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI) , with 10.4% and 10% of funds invested respectively.On a fund level, openings in Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI) dominate the picture, with Carmignac Emerging Discovery, Fidelity and BlackRock opening positions, among others.  Closures in Nova Ljubljanska Banka from TT International, Goldman Sachs and Polar Capital are the stand outs.  Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Asia Ex-Japan Financials.  Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 26th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Zijin Mining, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Alibaba, AIA, Sunny Optical, Vgt, Wuxi Xdc Cayman, Montage Tech, Guming.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 26th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Zijin Mining, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Alibaba, AIA, Sunny Optical, Vgt, Wuxi Xdc Cayman, Montage Tech, Guming.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Mining, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Alibaba, AIA, Sunny Optical

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 3rd): Tencent, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Meituan

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited is a Hong Kong-based multinational insurance and finance corporation, and the largest publicly traded life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a wide range of products and services including life insurance, accident and health insurance, savings plans, employee benefits, and wealth management. The company was founded in Shanghai in 1919 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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AIA (1299 HK)

Frontier Markets Exposure in EM Funds

With Argentina and Kuwait moving up to Emerging status, how are active EM investors positioned in the current crop of Frontier Markets?

Steven Holden

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Asia Ex-Japan Financials. Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Active Asia Ex-Japan managers move back in to the Financials sector after a period of heavy rotation, however allocations remain well below...

Steven Holden

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Mining, Kingboard Laminates, Tencent, Alibaba, AIA, Sunny Optical

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 26th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Mining (2899 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 3rd): Tencent, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Meituan

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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