Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons</li>
<li>The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs</li>
<li>Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs</li>
</ul>


With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons
The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs
Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs


Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a> reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.

Stella International (1836 HK) will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.


Lufax Holding (6623 HK) reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 16th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Wuxi Bio, HSBC, Galaxy Ent, Link Reit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 16th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, Wuxi Bio, HSBC, Galaxy Ent, Link Reit.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Wuxi Bio, HSBC, Galaxy Ent, Link Reit

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 23rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Samsonite International (1910 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 23rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Samsonite International (1910 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 23rd): Tencent, Aia, Samsonite International

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Emerging Market allocations are stabilizing among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Country-Level shifts show China &amp; HK allocations more than halving since 2022, while Taiwan has seen strong gains. India becomes the top country underweight.</li>
<li>Alibaba has declined to record lows, Tencent ownership is stabilizing, and TSMC has reached new highs.</li>
</ul>


Emerging Market allocations are stabilizing among active Global equity funds.
Country-Level shifts show China &amp; HK allocations more than halving since 2022, while Taiwan has seen strong gains. India becomes the top country underweight.
Alibaba has declined to record lows, Tencent ownership is stabilizing, and TSMC has reached new highs.


Emerging Markets:  Structural Shifts as Allocations Stabilise Among Global Funds.

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Profit down 75% YoY and revenue down 32% YoY in latest results just out for 1H24. Risks still remain for this company, and potentially worsening...

Daniel Tabbush

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

ETF flows were again led by China. Stella International reported a surge in earnings and AIA announced new policy growth exceeded expectations....

David Mudd

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Wuxi Bio, HSBC, Galaxy Ent, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 16th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Wuxi Bio, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 23rd): Tencent, Aia, Samsonite International

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts as Allocations Stabilise Among Global Funds.

Average EM weights of 7.05% sit near the lower end of the decade-long range. While active managers remain structurally underweight EM, this has...

Steven Holden

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