Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AIA reported full-year results with VNB +33% YoY (CER basis, +30% on AER basis) to US$4,034mn, and ANP +45% YoY (CER basis, +41% on AER basis) to US$7,650mn, in line with our forecasts (VNB +31%, ANP +44% on AER basis).</li><li>We saw a narrowed downtrend in VNB margin to 52.6%, sequentially improved by 3.8pct to 54.5% in 2H23 (vs 1H23: 50.7%).</li><li>Among double-digit growth in four segments, AIA HK’s VNB remarkably rose 82% YoY underpinned by sequential growth in 4Q23 by capturing MCV demands against a sector-wide slowdown. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

AIA reported full-year results with VNB +33% YoY (CER basis, +30% on AER basis) to US$4,034mn, and ANP +45% YoY (CER basis, +41% on AER basis) to US$7,650mn, in line with our forecasts (VNB +31%, ANP +44% on AER basis).We saw a narrowed downtrend in VNB margin to 52.6%, sequentially improved by 3.8pct to 54.5% in 2H23 (vs 1H23: 50.7%).Among double-digit growth in four segments, AIA HK’s VNB remarkably rose 82% YoY underpinned by sequential growth in 4Q23 by capturing MCV demands against a sector-wide slowdown. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - FY23 VNB +33% in Line

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.</li>
<li>Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.</li>
<li>Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.
Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.
Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.


<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 6th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 6th): Tencent, Meituan, AIA

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th and highlight short interest changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM