Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group (1299 HK)</a> is set to announce its 2024 Annual Results on 14 March 2025, 09:00 am HK Time.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group (1299 HK)</a> has historically experienced volatile trading during results days, with a median move of +/- 4.2%, considerably higher than typical daily movements. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> will announce its final dividend. With a history of increases, a divided raise can be expected.</li>
</ul>



AIA Group (1299 HK) is set to announce its 2024 Annual Results on 14 March 2025, 09:00 am HK Time.

AIA Group (1299 HK) has historically experienced volatile trading during results days, with a median move of +/- 4.2%, considerably higher than typical daily movements. 

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) will announce its final dividend. With a history of increases, a divided raise can be expected.


AIA Group (1299 HK) Results Day: Expected Price Swings and Dividend Boost

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AIA reported decent 1Q25 growth with VONB up by 13% YoY (CER) on top of a high prior-year base (1Q24: +31%), driven by both margin expansion (+3pct) and ANP increase (+7%).</li><li>VONB margin jumped to 57.5%, a quarter high since FY22, thanks to progressive shift in product mix to participating-type long-term savings offset by the change of economic assumptions by end-FY24.</li><li>The rise of new business CSM (+16%) outgrew VONB for the first time (+13%), boding well for a profitable stock of future earnings to propel for Group OPAT growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA reported decent 1Q25 growth with VONB up by 13% YoY (CER) on top of a high prior-year base (1Q24: +31%), driven by both margin expansion (+3pct) and ANP increase (+7%).VONB margin jumped to 57.5%, a quarter high since FY22, thanks to progressive shift in product mix to participating-type long-term savings offset by the change of economic assumptions by end-FY24.The rise of new business CSM (+16%) outgrew VONB for the first time (+13%), boding well for a profitable stock of future earnings to propel for Group OPAT growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - Decent VONB Growth Across Ex-China Markets

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 8th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSB (11 HK), Xinyi Glass (868 HK), Yum China (9987 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 8th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSB (11 HK), Xinyi Glass (868 HK), Yum China (9987 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 8th): Hang Seng Bank, Xinyi Glass, Yum China

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. </li>
<li>SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.</li>
<li>UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.</li>
</ul>


Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. 
SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.
UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.


AIA Group & HDFC Bank: Big Hitters Lose Momentum

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

AIA Group (1299 HK) Results Day: Expected Price Swings and Dividend Boost

AIA Group (1299 HK) to announce 2024 Annual Results on 14 March 2025, historically volatile trading on results days with potential dividend raise.

Gaudenz Schneider