Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology (833575 CH)

<ul>
<li>The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.</li>
<li>Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.</li>
<li>Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.
Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.
Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.


Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

China

AIM Vaccine Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes vaccines. The Company produces recombinant hepatitis b vaccines, freeze dried human rabies vaccines, inactivated hepatitis a vaccines, live attenuated parotitis vaccines, and others. AIM Vaccine also operates import and export businesses.

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AIM Vaccine (6660 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

The real China’s HPV vaccine market could be smaller-than-expected.After being included in National Immunization Program, vaccine business will be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)