Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a> announced it had <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer%20Announcement%20for%20Sabana%20REIT%20by%20Volare%20Group%20AG.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=744629" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offered to buy</a> another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.</li>
<li>The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.</li>
<li>It's a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there's an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) announced it had offered to buy another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.
The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.
It's a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there's an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.


Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT - Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a> disclosed a partial offer from Volare to acquire a maximum of 109.6 million units at $0.465 per unit, a 9.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The partial offer is conditional on minimum acceptances representing 10.00% of outstanding units. Quarz Capital, the activist fund, says the offer is attractive.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, the sponsor, is unlikely to tender. Based on a proration of 13.54% and at the last close price of S$0.425, the breakeven price is S$0.420.</li>
</ul>



Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) disclosed a partial offer from Volare to acquire a maximum of 109.6 million units at $0.465 per unit, a 9.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The partial offer is conditional on minimum acceptances representing 10.00% of outstanding units. Quarz Capital, the activist fund, says the offer is attractive.

ESR Group (1821 HK), the sponsor, is unlikely to tender. Based on a proration of 13.54% and at the last close price of S$0.425, the breakeven price is S$0.420.


Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Partial Offer from Volare

<ul>
<li>In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.</li>
<li>Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.</li>
<li>The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?</li>
</ul>


In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.
Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.
The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?


<ul>
<li>Under the revised scheme consideration, each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP)</a> unitholder will receive S$0.097 in cash and 1.7729 new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> units at an issue price of S$0.4924.</li>
<li>The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. </li>
<li>We think that the revised offer is reasonable. For a 28 April payment date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.9% and 18.2%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


Under the revised scheme consideration, each ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP) unitholder will receive S$0.097 in cash and 1.7729 new ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) units at an issue price of S$0.4924.
The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. 
We think that the revised offer is reasonable. For a 28 April payment date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.9% and 18.2%, respectively. 


ARA LOGOS/ESR-REIT Scheme Meeting on 21 March, IFA Opinion

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Sabana Industrial REIT / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>In December 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT</li>
<li>While Sabana's unitholders were ostensibly holding out for more favourable transaction terms, this was not forthcoming and transaction ultimately fell through</li>
<li>In this Insight, we look into Sabana a year on and discuss whether its unitholders have been left to rue the failed transaction and this was but a pyrrhic victory</li>
</ul>


In December 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT
While Sabana's unitholders were ostensibly holding out for more favourable transaction terms, this was not forthcoming and transaction ultimately fell through
In this Insight, we look into Sabana a year on and discuss whether its unitholders have been left to rue the failed transaction and this was but a pyrrhic victory


One Year After Failed Merger, A Pyrrhic Victory for Sabana's Unitholders?

Singapore

AIMS APAC REIT is a real estate investment trust. The Trust's principal investment objective is owning and investing in a diversified portfolio of income-producing industrial real estate assets throughout Asia Pacific, including warehousing and logistics, manufacturing, business parks and hi-tech spaces.

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AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP)

Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT - Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

Private industrial concern with significant fuel/real estate presence Volare Group AG owns 5.4% of Sabana Industrial REIT. They have announced a...

Travis Lundy

Sabana REIT (SSREIT SP): Partial Offer from Volare

The offer is conditional on a 10% min. acceptances. Quarz Capital is supportive. Based on a proration of 13.54% and at the last close price of...

Arun George

Update on the S-REIT Re-Allocation Trade

The S-REIT Re-Allocation Basket is +5.3%(TR) from close after I wrote (25 July) to yesterday. Not enough excess value has traded. Should it run?...

Travis Lundy

ARA LOGOS/ESR-REIT Scheme Meeting on 21 March, IFA Opinion

ARA Logos and ESR-REIT merger scheme meeting is set for 21 March. The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. For a 28 April...

Arun George

One Year After Failed Merger, A Pyrrhic Victory for Sabana's Unitholders?

In Dec 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT. A year on, we look into Sabana and discuss whether its unitholders...

Jason Yap, CFA

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