Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. </li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Capping will lead to most inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. 
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.
Capping will lead to most inflows to Meituan (3690 HK) while the largest outflows will be from Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 


Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The value of SmartMore’s business model is based on IndustryGPT, combined with sensors and robots, it achieves a leap from "single-point AI" to "system-level AI", effectively solving industry pain points.</li>
<li>The "software and hardware integration" approach leads to a “heavy” business model, with higher demands for supply chain, hardware manufacturing, after-sales maintenance, and may result in lower asset turnover rates.</li>
<li>As an industry leader with faster growth, SmartMore can enjoy a certain premium. If based on 2026 forecast, market value could be about RMB9.1 billion – RMB12.2 billion.</li>
</ul>


The value of SmartMore’s business model is based on IndustryGPT, combined with sensors and robots, it achieves a leap from "single-point AI" to "system-level AI", effectively solving industry pain points.
The "software and hardware integration" approach leads to a “heavy” business model, with higher demands for supply chain, hardware manufacturing, after-sales maintenance, and may result in lower asset turnover rates.
As an industry leader with faster growth, SmartMore can enjoy a certain premium. If based on 2026 forecast, market value could be about RMB9.1 billion – RMB12.2 billion.


Pre-IPO SmartMore - Valuation Premium Is Expected

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Number of China public security projects bidding remained weak in 3Q22 at -7% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q22) as Sep number deteriorated (-9% YoY).</li><li>Meanwhile, the US has broadened the restrictions from targeting specific companies (Entity List) to specific products (semiconductors/ equipment above certain computing threshold). </li><li>Our channel checks suggested that the new rules have limited impact to existing commercial AI applications.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Number of China public security projects bidding remained weak in 3Q22 at -7% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q22) as Sep number deteriorated (-9% YoY).Meanwhile, the US has broadened the restrictions from targeting specific companies (Entity List) to specific products (semiconductors/ equipment above certain computing threshold). Our channel checks suggested that the new rules have limited impact to existing commercial AI applications.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China AI – Public Security Demand Remained Weak in 3Q22

<ul><li>Reuters reported that the U.S. may publish new regulations next month to broaden curbs on 1) AI chips, 2) chipmaking equipment and 3) products that contain targeted chips exports to China. </li><li>This could cover more U.S. companies and will disallow export of servers containing advanced GPU. </li><li>Under the new rules, China can still design sub-14nm (not sub-3nm) AI chips but the production has to be taken place outside of China. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reuters reported that the U.S. may publish new regulations next month to broaden curbs on 1) AI chips, 2) chipmaking equipment and 3) products that contain targeted chips exports to China. This could cover more U.S. companies and will disallow export of servers containing advanced GPU. Under the new rules, China can still design sub-14nm (not sub-3nm) AI chips but the production has to be taken place outside of China. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China AI – U.S. May Broaden AI Chips Export Restrictions

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

China

AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, and provision of artificial intelligence technologies, offering AI-based software and hardware solutions to enterprises. Its core offerings include AI platforms like ManuVision, MatrixVision, and Orion, which are applied across various industries such as manufacturing and financial services. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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AInnovation Technology Group (2121 HK)

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

Hang Seng Indexes announces post market close today. There will be changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII and HSCI indices. The net round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO SmartMore - Valuation Premium Is Expected

SmartMore's innovative business model, combining IndustryGPT with sensors and robots, solves industry pain points. As industry leader with faster...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China AI – Public Security Demand Remained Weak in 3Q22

Number of China public security projects bidding remained weak in 3Q22 at -7% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q22) as Sep number deteriorated (-9% YoY).

CMB International

China AI – U.S. May Broaden AI Chips Export Restrictions

Under the new rules, China can still design sub-14nm (not sub-3nm) AI chips but the production has to be taken place outside of China.

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlighted flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Today; Updated Flows (Some Big Ones)

Hang Seng Indexes announces post market close today. There will be changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII and HSCI indices. The net round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO SmartMore - Valuation Premium Is Expected

​SmartMore's innovative business model, combining IndustryGPT with sensors and robots, solves industry pain points. As industry leader with faster...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China AI – Public Security Demand Remained Weak in 3Q22

Number of China public security projects bidding remained weak in 3Q22 at -7% YoY (vs. -4% YoY in 2Q22) as Sep number deteriorated (-9% YoY).

CMB International

China AI – U.S. May Broaden AI Chips Export Restrictions

Under the new rules, China can still design sub-14nm (not sub-3nm) AI chips but the production has to be taken place outside of China.

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlighted flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SmartMore's innovative business model, combining IndustryGPT with sensors and robots, solves industry pain points. As industry leader with faster...