New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) the likely post-result realism reflected in FY26 earnings expectations given first-time guidance; (2) reduced regulatory risk following the recent confirmation from the government that regulatory change is off the table; and (3) recent relative share price underperformance.</li><li>AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been in play for over two years.</li><li>Management expects to only reach pre-COVID levels in FY28.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) the likely post-result realism reflected in FY26 earnings expectations given first-time guidance; (2) reduced regulatory risk following the recent confirmation from the government that regulatory change is off the table; and (3) recent relative share price underperformance.AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been in play for over two years.Management expects to only reach pre-COVID levels in FY28.

Auckland Airport FY25—Back into a Holding Pattern

<ul><li>Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.</li><li>Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.</li><li>Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.</li></ul>

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. ​​​​​​​</li><li>AIR's first investor day for five years highlighted management's active pursuit of a wide range of credible, value accretive revenue and cost-related initiatives, aimed at lifting financial performance over the medium term.</li><li>However, it also acknowledged the challenges posed in the airline industry, and that some of the targeted benefits may be competed away. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. ​​​​​​​AIR's first investor day for five years highlighted management's active pursuit of a wide range of credible, value accretive revenue and cost-related initiatives, aimed at lifting financial performance over the medium term.However, it also acknowledged the challenges posed in the airline industry, and that some of the targeted benefits may be competed away. 

Air New Zealand - Management Back in Control of the Cockpit

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven by slowing demand and competitive pressures.</li><li>The result was impacted by ~NZ$100m of temporary net costs in the year due to aircraft availability issues (from engine maintenance requirements), albeit these were largely offset by NZ$90m of one-off COVID credit breakage income.</li><li>The outlook for 1H25 remains subdued, with AIR trading close to breakeven, as current difficult operating conditions are likely to continue. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven by slowing demand and competitive pressures.The result was impacted by ~NZ$100m of temporary net costs in the year due to aircraft availability issues (from engine maintenance requirements), albeit these were largely offset by NZ$90m of one-off COVID credit breakage income.The outlook for 1H25 remains subdued, with AIR trading close to breakeven, as current difficult operating conditions are likely to continue. 

Air New Zealand - FY24 — Landing Just Above Sea Level

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Auckland Airport FY25—Back into a Holding Pattern

AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - Management Back in Control of the Cockpit

Air New Zealand (AIR) hosted an upbeat investor day and provided positive first time 1H25 earnings guidance; we upgrade to NEUTRAL from...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - FY24 — Landing Just Above Sea Level

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a challenged FY24 result, which incorporated a significant decline in profitability during the second half, driven...

Forsyth Barr

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