New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Demand remains robust: AIR will finish FY23 stronger than it had expected when it provided guidance at its 1H23 result in February 2023 and its more recent update in late April 2023</li><li>Softer oil prices supportive: Lower oil prices have bolstered late-FY23 profitability and will help mitigate the impact of lower yields through FY24</li><li>Other cost pressures persist: While oil prices trend lower, other operating costs continue to rise. Staff costs are increasing due to headcount and wages</li></ul>

Demand remains robust: AIR will finish FY23 stronger than it had expected when it provided guidance at its 1H23 result in February 2023 and its more recent update in late April 2023Softer oil prices supportive: Lower oil prices have bolstered late-FY23 profitability and will help mitigate the impact of lower yields through FY24Other cost pressures persist: While oil prices trend lower, other operating costs continue to rise. Staff costs are increasing due to headcount and wages

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has lifted its FY23 profit before tax guidance again to “no less than NZ$580m” from a prior range of NZ$510m-NZ$560m (that was upgraded in late April 2023 from NZ$450m–NZ$530m).</li><li>The upgrade reflects (1) stronger ongoing demand than is typical during its low season and (2) lower oil prices. Revised guidance compares to Visible Alpha consensus of NZ$546m and our estimate of NZ$553m.</li><li>The outlook for FY24 continues to be relatively uncertain despite robust forward bookings and lower oil prices</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has lifted its FY23 profit before tax guidance again to “no less than NZ$580m” from a prior range of NZ$510m-NZ$560m (that was upgraded in late April 2023 from NZ$450m–NZ$530m).The upgrade reflects (1) stronger ongoing demand than is typical during its low season and (2) lower oil prices. Revised guidance compares to Visible Alpha consensus of NZ$546m and our estimate of NZ$553m.The outlook for FY24 continues to be relatively uncertain despite robust forward bookings and lower oil prices

<ul><li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a modest softening of yields as additional capacity returns</li><li>Our estimate (~NZ$457m) for its April 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of April 2019 (~NZ$401m), implying ~NZ$16.3m/day</li><li>Demand appears weaker than recent months, with average load factors dropping to 82.5% from a rolling 12m average of 86.3%.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a modest softening of yields as additional capacity returnsOur estimate (~NZ$457m) for its April 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of April 2019 (~NZ$401m), implying ~NZ$16.3m/dayDemand appears weaker than recent months, with average load factors dropping to 82.5% from a rolling 12m average of 86.3%.

Air New Zealand: Further Signs of Yields Easing

<ul><li>Guidance upgrade: AIR's new FY23 pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance band of NZ$510m–NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m–NZ$530m, represents a ~+9% increase at the mid-point.</li><li>March operating stats highlights continued positive trading: AIR's March 2023 operating stats show continued strong demand with monthly revenue materially (+13% on our estimates) above CY19 levels. </li><li>Supportive oil price: The downwards slope in jet fuel prices has persisted since the peak in mid-CY22, reflecting a combination of more settled crude oil prices and a reduction in the crack spread.</li></ul>

Guidance upgrade: AIR's new FY23 pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance band of NZ$510m–NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m–NZ$530m, represents a ~+9% increase at the mid-point.March operating stats highlights continued positive trading: AIR's March 2023 operating stats show continued strong demand with monthly revenue materially (+13% on our estimates) above CY19 levels. Supportive oil price: The downwards slope in jet fuel prices has persisted since the peak in mid-CY22, reflecting a combination of more settled crude oil prices and a reduction in the crack spread.

Air New Zealand: Tailwind Lift for Higher Flying

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530m</li><li>The company highlights (1) continued strong pax demand across both international and domestic network (meaning yields remain high), (2) a lower USD oil price partly offset by a weaker NZD, and (3) softer cargo revenues as airfreight yields decline and industry volumes slip.</li><li>AIR’s better near term profitability highlights continued strong yields, which will likely flow into FY24.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530mThe company highlights (1) continued strong pax demand across both international and domestic network (meaning yields remain high), (2) a lower USD oil price partly offset by a weaker NZD, and (3) softer cargo revenues as airfreight yields decline and industry volumes slip.AIR’s better near term profitability highlights continued strong yields, which will likely flow into FY24.

Air New Zealand: Guidance Upgrade (30-Apr-2023)

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand: In a Holding Pattern

Air New Zealand's (AIR) recent profit upgrade, together with International Air Transport Association (IATA) commentary, highlights strong tailwinds...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Another Profit Upgrade

Air New Zealand (AIR) has lifted its FY23 profit before tax guidance again to “no less than NZ$580m” from a prior range of NZ$510m-NZ$560m (that...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Further Signs of Yields Easing

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a modest softening of yields as additional capacity returns; Our...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Tailwind Lift for Higher Flying

Air New Zealand (AIR) has upgraded its FY23 earnings guidance range reflecting continued strong levels of passenger (pax) demand on both domestic...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Guidance Upgrade (30-Apr-2023)

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530m, which the company highlights (1)...

Forsyth Barr

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