New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23</li><li>Our estimate (~NZ$440m) for its February 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of February 2019 (~NZ$420m), implying ~NZ$15.7m/day</li><li>Demand remains strong in a capacity constrained market, though loads and yields have softened from recent highs.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23Our estimate (~NZ$440m) for its February 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of February 2019 (~NZ$420m), implying ~NZ$15.7m/dayDemand remains strong in a capacity constrained market, though loads and yields have softened from recent highs.

Air New Zealand: Some Signs of Yields Easing

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23</li>
<li>Our estimate (~NZ$505m) for its January 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of January 2019 (~NZ$450m), implying ~NZ$18.1m/day.</li>
<li>January was a four week month (AIR uses a 4-4-5 week monthly approach to each quarter). <span style="text-decoration: underline;">We calculate this to be the second highest monthly pax revenue per day in AIR’s history</span>, marginally lower than last month</li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23
Our estimate (~NZ$505m) for its January 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of January 2019 (~NZ$450m), implying ~NZ$18.1m/day.
January was a four week month (AIR uses a 4-4-5 week monthly approach to each quarter). We calculate this to be the second highest monthly pax revenue per day in AIR’s history, marginally lower than last month


<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance range</li><li>Underlying PBT of NZ$299m, compares to its guidance range of NZ$295m-NZ$325m</li><li>There is no interim dividend though the Board says it will reconsider paying dividends earlier than its previous FY26 timeframe at the FY23 full year result in August 2023.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance rangeUnderlying PBT of NZ$299m, compares to its guidance range of NZ$295m-NZ$325mThere is no interim dividend though the Board says it will reconsider paying dividends earlier than its previous FY26 timeframe at the FY23 full year result in August 2023.

Air New Zealand (AIR): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Step-up in yields: The strong yield driven earnings rebound is consistent with airlines globally; robust COVID demand has been in excess of industry supply creating a very favourable pricing backdrop</li><li>Capacity in step with competition for now: AIR's international capacity recovery appears in step with competing airlines into the New Zealand market, though this is likely to change over the next 18 months</li><li>Cost reinvestment: The reinvestment in people and capability is adding unproductive costs in the near-term</li></ul>

Step-up in yields: The strong yield driven earnings rebound is consistent with airlines globally; robust COVID demand has been in excess of industry supply creating a very favourable pricing backdropCapacity in step with competition for now: AIR's international capacity recovery appears in step with competing airlines into the New Zealand market, though this is likely to change over the next 18 monthsCost reinvestment: The reinvestment in people and capability is adding unproductive costs in the near-term

Air New Zealand: 1H23 — Close to Full Thrust

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023.</li><li>In light of a very strong end to the half we expect PBT at the top end of management's guidance range of NZ$295m–NZ$325m</li><li>The strong yield backdrop will continue to boost earnings through 2H23, with upside risk to near term consensus earnings. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023.In light of a very strong end to the half we expect PBT at the top end of management's guidance range of NZ$295m–NZ$325mThe strong yield backdrop will continue to boost earnings through 2H23, with upside risk to near term consensus earnings. 

Air New Zealand: 1H23 Preview — Return Flight to Profitability

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

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Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels...

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Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance range;...

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Air New Zealand's (AIR) 1H23 strong profit rebound result was driven by record yields, which have yet to show any signs of unwinding; First time...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: 1H23 Preview — Return Flight to Profitability

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023 and in light of a very...

Forsyth Barr

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