New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.</li><li>2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.</li><li>Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.</li></ul>

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) the likely post-result realism reflected in FY26 earnings expectations given first-time guidance; (2) reduced regulatory risk following the recent confirmation from the government that regulatory change is off the table; and (3) recent relative share price underperformance.</li><li>AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been in play for over two years.</li><li>Management expects to only reach pre-COVID levels in FY28.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) the likely post-result realism reflected in FY26 earnings expectations given first-time guidance; (2) reduced regulatory risk following the recent confirmation from the government that regulatory change is off the table; and (3) recent relative share price underperformance.AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been in play for over two years.Management expects to only reach pre-COVID levels in FY28.

Auckland Airport FY25—Back into a Holding Pattern

<ul><li>Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.</li><li>Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.</li><li>Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.</li></ul>

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

Equity Bottom-Up

Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level.</li><li>The key news of the day, however, was the announcement of another large storage contract, this time with bp.</li><li>The bp announcement plus additional upside opportunity results in strong earnings increases from FY29, a step up in the forecast dividend from FY27, and a +NZ27c increase in our target price to NZ$3.68.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level.The key news of the day, however, was the announcement of another large storage contract, this time with bp.The bp announcement plus additional upside opportunity results in strong earnings increases from FY29, a step up in the forecast dividend from FY27, and a +NZ27c increase in our target price to NZ$3.68.

Channel Infrastructure Tanks for the Contract bp—1H26 Result

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Transport Trends Getting Into Gear

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport FY25—Back into a Holding Pattern

AIA's FY25 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first-time FY26 earnings guidance maintains a downgrade cycle that has been...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure Tanks for the Contract bp—1H26 Result

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level. The key news of the day,...

Forsyth Barr

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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