New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in profitability through the period.</li>
<li>The next six months look even worse. FY24 guidance, that was issued earlier this week, suggests the business will be barely profitable through 2H24, with particular pressure evident across its North America and domestic segments.</li>
<li>The profit squeeze is a function of yield pressure from increasing competition and slowing demand, and continued above trend cost inflation. </li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in profitability through the period.
The next six months look even worse. FY24 guidance, that was issued earlier this week, suggests the business will be barely profitable through 2H24, with particular pressure evident across its North America and domestic segments.
The profit squeeze is a function of yield pressure from increasing competition and slowing demand, and continued above trend cost inflation. 


Air New Zealand - 1H24 — Descending into the Wrong Airport

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued another profit warning, this time guiding FY24 consensus earnings materially lower.</li><li>This warning follows several downgrades during the past six months.</li><li>The health of the operating environment has steadily deteriorated through FY24, given slowing demand, increasing competition, and rising costs. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued another profit warning, this time guiding FY24 consensus earnings materially lower.This warning follows several downgrades during the past six months.The health of the operating environment has steadily deteriorated through FY24, given slowing demand, increasing competition, and rising costs. 

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.</li><li>Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom end of its NZ$180m–NZ$230m range.</li><li>We forecast PBT of NZ$183m, down -39% against the prior year. The quality of the result will be compromised by the inclusion of ~NZ$45m of income connected to expired COVID-related credits.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom end of its NZ$180m–NZ$230m range.We forecast PBT of NZ$183m, down -39% against the prior year. The quality of the result will be compromised by the inclusion of ~NZ$45m of income connected to expired COVID-related credits.

Air New Zealand - 1H24 Preview — Descending

<ul><li>The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening.</li><li>Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of weakening demand across its domestic and trans-Tasman business.</li><li>Long-haul has been largely immune to date, but given steadily recovering market capacity we expect a weaker long-haul story to emerge over the next six to 12 months, particularly from New Zealand outbound travellers. </li></ul>

The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening.Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of weakening demand across its domestic and trans-Tasman business.Long-haul has been largely immune to date, but given steadily recovering market capacity we expect a weaker long-haul story to emerge over the next six to 12 months, particularly from New Zealand outbound travellers. 

Air New Zealand - Lacks Pax, Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM

<ul><li>The strong bounce in Air New Zealand's (AIR) post-COVID earnings is subsiding. FY24 earnings are likely to be materially lower than FY23.</li><li>The recent first time 1H24 earnings guidance points to margin decline driven by moderating yields, lower domestic load factors, higher fuel costs, and sustained labour inflation.</li><li>AIR refers to softening domestic demand, which we expect to seep into international over the course of FY24, given increasing competition and a weakening consumer backdrop. </li></ul>

The strong bounce in Air New Zealand's (AIR) post-COVID earnings is subsiding. FY24 earnings are likely to be materially lower than FY23.The recent first time 1H24 earnings guidance points to margin decline driven by moderating yields, lower domestic load factors, higher fuel costs, and sustained labour inflation.AIR refers to softening domestic demand, which we expect to seep into international over the course of FY24, given increasing competition and a weakening consumer backdrop. 

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand - 1H24 — Descending into the Wrong Airport

Air New Zealand (AIR) reported a weaker 1H24 result, consistent with its most recent commentary and reflective of a sequential deterioration in...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - We'd Been Warned

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued another profit warning, this time guiding FY24 consensus earnings materially lower. This warning follows several...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - 1H24 Preview — Descending

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024. Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - Lacks Pax, Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM

The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening. Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - Lower Flight Path

The strong bounce in Air New Zealand's (AIR) post-COVID earnings is subsiding. FY24 earnings are likely to be materially lower than FY23. The...

Forsyth Barr

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