Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities traded broadly flat this week, with performance shaped by sector rotation rather than index direction.</li>
<li>Investors rotated decisively into “hardware” and national security–linked sectors, reflecting policy signals from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi</li>
<li>GS Yuasa was the top performer this week, after the company announced plans to build a new lithium-ion battery plant for energy storage systems</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities traded broadly flat this week, with performance shaped by sector rotation rather than index direction.
Investors rotated decisively into “hardware” and national security–linked sectors, reflecting policy signals from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
GS Yuasa was the top performer this week, after the company announced plans to build a new lithium-ion battery plant for energy storage systems


Japan Strategy Weekly | From Austerity to Strategic Investment

<ul>
<li>
 For the week: Nikkei: -1.1%, TPX -0.8%, JPY 149.70 (-1.48¥), Gold +8.8%, Oil: -3.4%, BTC: -7.2%</li>
<li>A week remains a lifetime in financial markets. The exuberance that lifted Japanese equities to record highs only last week has given way to a more cautious tone</li>
<li>
Sector wise, Retail outperformed, suggesting defensive positioning, but also reflecting strong underlying business performance. Aeon, Ryohin and Fast all saw major gains. </li>
</ul>



 For the week: Nikkei: -1.1%, TPX -0.8%, JPY 149.70 (-1.48¥), Gold +8.8%, Oil: -3.4%, BTC: -7.2%
A week remains a lifetime in financial markets. The exuberance that lifted Japanese equities to record highs only last week has given way to a more cautious tone

Sector wise, Retail outperformed, suggesting defensive positioning, but also reflecting strong underlying business performance. Aeon, Ryohin and Fast all saw major gains. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Japan

AIR WATER INC. produces industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and acetylene.  The Company also sells fuels and processed foods.

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Air Water Inc (4088 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | From Austerity to Strategic Investment

Japanese equities traded flat this week, driven by sector rotation rather than index direction. Investors favored "hardware" and national security...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...

Mark Chadwick

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Japan Strategy Weekly | From Austerity to Strategic Investment

​Japanese equities traded flat this week, driven by sector rotation rather than index direction. Investors favored "hardware" and national security...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | Global Jitters Spread

​Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...

Mark Chadwick

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Japanese equities traded flat this week, driven by sector rotation rather than index direction. Investors favored "hardware" and national security...

Japanese markets experienced a shift from exuberance to caution in just one week, with Retail sector outperforming and showing strong business...