Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined funding requirements up by 2-3% of GDP.</li>
<li>However, the structure of the tax changes disproportionately benefit top quintile households with a high propensity to save, both directly and via the equity market buyback/dividend wealth effect.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the trade deficit numbers look 1-1.5% too high, due to now less attractive transfer pricing/profit…</li>
</ul>


US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined funding requirements up by 2-3% of GDP.
However, the structure of the tax changes disproportionately benefit top quintile households with a high propensity to save, both directly and via the equity market buyback/dividend wealth effect.
Furthermore, the trade deficit numbers look 1-1.5% too high, due to now less attractive transfer pricing/profit…


Dollar Bears Focus on Twin Deficits, as China Fears Imply Software Led 5G Rollout

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched and even parabolic in some cases, recent downward pressure on global equities has allowed many stocks to return to solid entry points near various areas of support. In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched and even parabolic in some cases, recent downward pressure on global equities has allowed many stocks to return to solid entry points near various areas of support. In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

France

Airbus Group SE manufactures airplanes and military equipment.  The Company produces commercial aircraft including the Airbus, military fighter aircraft, military and commercial helicopters, missiles, satellites, and telecommunications and defense systems, and offers military and commercial aircraft conversion and maintenance services.

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Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE,...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Bears Focus on Twin Deficits, as China Fears Imply Software Led 5G Rollout

US twin deficits have for the first time since 2004/5 become a focus for FX markets, fearing that a late cycle fiscal expansion will push combined...

Sean Maher

Global Equity Strategy

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched...

Vermilion Research

Bombardier: Flying on Fumes

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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