Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly at King Power Duty Free (KPD).</li><li>We estimate that KPD’s minimum guarantee may be revised downward, potentially returning to levels similar to the previous concession period (2017-2019).</li><li>In addition, the YTD decline in tourist arrivals is pressuring international passenger traffic. </li></ul>

Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly at King Power Duty Free (KPD).We estimate that KPD’s minimum guarantee may be revised downward, potentially returning to levels similar to the previous concession period (2017-2019).In addition, the YTD decline in tourist arrivals is pressuring international passenger traffic. 

Airports of Thailand - Low Revenue Sharing; Weak International Passenger Numbers

<ul><li>The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism.</li><li>In addition, passenger movements in 2HFY25E typically decrease HoH due to seasonality.</li><li>We have therefore revised down our core profit forecasts for FY25-26E by 4% and 9%, reflecting a downward adjustment in passenger numbers to 129mn and 136mn, respectively.</li></ul>

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism.In addition, passenger movements in 2HFY25E typically decrease HoH due to seasonality.We have therefore revised down our core profit forecasts for FY25-26E by 4% and 9%, reflecting a downward adjustment in passenger numbers to 129mn and 136mn, respectively.

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

<ul><li>Yesterday, AOT's share price declined by 6%, with the drop occurring in the afternoon session following the company’s announcement to the SET regarding a revision to its previously disclosed statement (February 17, 2025).</li><li>The statement clarified the liquidity challenges faced by commercial operators and airlines, allowing King Power Duty Free (KPD) to defer the minimum guarantee payments for September 2024 to April 2025 (previously set to end in February 2025).</li><li>However, the clarification also revealed that KPD had initially submitted a request to postpone payments from August 2024 to July 2025, extending each installment by 18 months.</li></ul>

Yesterday, AOT's share price declined by 6%, with the drop occurring in the afternoon session following the company’s announcement to the SET regarding a revision to its previously disclosed statement (February 17, 2025).The statement clarified the liquidity challenges faced by commercial operators and airlines, allowing King Power Duty Free (KPD) to defer the minimum guarantee payments for September 2024 to April 2025 (previously set to end in February 2025).However, the clarification also revealed that KPD had initially submitted a request to postpone payments from August 2024 to July 2025, extending each installment by 18 months.

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

<ul><li>Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously Bt71.75 based on a required return of 2.3%).</li><li>Our buy recommendation is upheld from the fundamental perspective, with the market price implying 28% upside to the fair value.</li><li>The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), as the stock price has declined 21% YTD, already reflecting concerns over King Power’s potential default.</li></ul>

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously Bt71.75 based on a required return of 2.3%).Our buy recommendation is upheld from the fundamental perspective, with the market price implying 28% upside to the fair value.The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), as the stock price has declined 21% YTD, already reflecting concerns over King Power’s potential default.

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Outperform rating with a target price of Bt71.75, based on an earnings yield of 2.3%.</li>
<li>We remain positive on the fundamentals due to the market price implying significant upside of +32% to the target price.</li>
<li>We maintain our view expecting strong long-term growth, with an FY25-27E EPS CAGR of +14%, outperforming the industry average of +8%.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Outperform rating with a target price of Bt71.75, based on an earnings yield of 2.3%.
We remain positive on the fundamentals due to the market price implying significant upside of +32% to the target price.
We maintain our view expecting strong long-term growth, with an FY25-27E EPS CAGR of +14%, outperforming the industry average of +8%.


Airports of Thailand - 1QFY25 Earnings Slightly Lower than Expected

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Ltd. operates the Bangkok International Airport (Don Muang) and the New Bangkok International Airport (Suvarnabhumi).. The Company also operates provincial airports in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Hat Yai, and Phuket.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism. In addition, passenger movements in...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt60.25, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 2.5%.

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - 1QFY25 Earnings Slightly Lower than Expected

We maintain our view expecting strong long-term growth, with an FY25-27E EPS CAGR of +14%, outperforming the industry average of +8%.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Airports of Thailand - Low Revenue Sharing; Weak International Passenger Numbers

Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism. In addition, passenger movements in...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt60.25, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 2.5%.

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - 1QFY25 Earnings Slightly Lower than Expected

We maintain our view expecting strong long-term growth, with an FY25-27E EPS CAGR of +14%, outperforming the industry average of +8%.

Krungthai XSpring