Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have a negative outlook on profit-sharing income, which is expected to decline and form a new base in FY2026E due to the reduction in the minimum guarantee (MG) of King Power Duty Fee (KPD) (accounting for 27% of total revenue in FY2024).</li><li>Currently, AOT is still collecting the MG during the ongoing 2- month study and negotiation period.</li><li>As a result, we maintain our core profit estimate for FY2025E but revise down FY2026E core profit by 38%, leading to a long-term EPS contraction of a - 19% CAGR, below the industry average.</li></ul>

We have a negative outlook on profit-sharing income, which is expected to decline and form a new base in FY2026E due to the reduction in the minimum guarantee (MG) of King Power Duty Fee (KPD) (accounting for 27% of total revenue in FY2024).Currently, AOT is still collecting the MG during the ongoing 2- month study and negotiation period.As a result, we maintain our core profit estimate for FY2025E but revise down FY2026E core profit by 38%, leading to a long-term EPS contraction of a - 19% CAGR, below the industry average.

AOT TB - FY2026E Performance Likely to Be Pressured by Expected Reduction in MG from KPD

<ul><li>Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly at King Power Duty Free (KPD).</li><li>We estimate that KPD’s minimum guarantee may be revised downward, potentially returning to levels similar to the previous concession period (2017-2019).</li><li>In addition, the YTD decline in tourist arrivals is pressuring international passenger traffic. </li></ul>

Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly at King Power Duty Free (KPD).We estimate that KPD’s minimum guarantee may be revised downward, potentially returning to levels similar to the previous concession period (2017-2019).In addition, the YTD decline in tourist arrivals is pressuring international passenger traffic. 

Airports of Thailand - Low Revenue Sharing; Weak International Passenger Numbers

<ul><li>The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism.</li><li>In addition, passenger movements in 2HFY25E typically decrease HoH due to seasonality.</li><li>We have therefore revised down our core profit forecasts for FY25-26E by 4% and 9%, reflecting a downward adjustment in passenger numbers to 129mn and 136mn, respectively.</li></ul>

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism.In addition, passenger movements in 2HFY25E typically decrease HoH due to seasonality.We have therefore revised down our core profit forecasts for FY25-26E by 4% and 9%, reflecting a downward adjustment in passenger numbers to 129mn and 136mn, respectively.

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

<ul><li>Yesterday, AOT's share price declined by 6%, with the drop occurring in the afternoon session following the company’s announcement to the SET regarding a revision to its previously disclosed statement (February 17, 2025).</li><li>The statement clarified the liquidity challenges faced by commercial operators and airlines, allowing King Power Duty Free (KPD) to defer the minimum guarantee payments for September 2024 to April 2025 (previously set to end in February 2025).</li><li>However, the clarification also revealed that KPD had initially submitted a request to postpone payments from August 2024 to July 2025, extending each installment by 18 months.</li></ul>

Yesterday, AOT's share price declined by 6%, with the drop occurring in the afternoon session following the company’s announcement to the SET regarding a revision to its previously disclosed statement (February 17, 2025).The statement clarified the liquidity challenges faced by commercial operators and airlines, allowing King Power Duty Free (KPD) to defer the minimum guarantee payments for September 2024 to April 2025 (previously set to end in February 2025).However, the clarification also revealed that KPD had initially submitted a request to postpone payments from August 2024 to July 2025, extending each installment by 18 months.

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

<ul><li>Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously Bt71.75 based on a required return of 2.3%).</li><li>Our buy recommendation is upheld from the fundamental perspective, with the market price implying 28% upside to the fair value.</li><li>The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), as the stock price has declined 21% YTD, already reflecting concerns over King Power’s potential default.</li></ul>

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously Bt71.75 based on a required return of 2.3%).Our buy recommendation is upheld from the fundamental perspective, with the market price implying 28% upside to the fair value.The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), as the stock price has declined 21% YTD, already reflecting concerns over King Power’s potential default.

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Ltd. operates the Bangkok International Airport (Don Muang) and the New Bangkok International Airport (Suvarnabhumi).. The Company also operates provincial airports in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Hat Yai, and Phuket.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

AOT TB - FY2026E Performance Likely to Be Pressured by Expected Reduction in MG from KPD

As a result, we maintain our core profit estimate for FY2025E but revise down FY2026E core profit by 38%, leading to a long-term EPS contraction of...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism. In addition, passenger movements in...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt60.25, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 2.5%.

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AOT TB - FY2026E Performance Likely to Be Pressured by Expected Reduction in MG from KPD

As a result, we maintain our core profit estimate for FY2025E but revise down FY2026E core profit by 38%, leading to a long-term EPS contraction of...

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - Low Revenue Sharing; Weak International Passenger Numbers

Core profit in 2QFY25 came in below expectations due to continued weakness in revenue sharing, reflecting subdued passenger spending — particularly...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Revised Profit Down in Line with Lower-Than- Expected Passenger Movements in 1HFY25E

The number of international passengers in March 2025 began to decline, reflecting a slowdown in tourism. In addition, passenger movements in...

Krungthai XSpring

AOT TB - Negative View on Extension of Minimum Payment Deferral Period

We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt60.25, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 2.5%.

Krungthai XSpring

Airports of Thailand - Revenue and Financial Position Under Pressure Due to KP's Deferred Payments

Our Outperform rating is maintained, but the fair value (FV) has been revised down to Bt60.25, based on a required return of 2.5% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring