IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>Toyoda Gosei's primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.</li>
</ul>



Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
Toyoda Gosei's primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.


Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, <a href="https://www.acga-asia.org//pdf/tico-tmc-letter-english-public-version" target="_blank" rel="noopener">submitted a joint letter</a> to the boards of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.</li>
<li>The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.</li>
<li>Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$330m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 4.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) stock.</li>
<li>KE had seen two selldown earlier, from KKR, with mixed results. KKR just came out of its last lockup.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Applied Materials (AMAT US) is looking to raise approximately US$330m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 4.5% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) stock.
KE had seen two selldown earlier, from KKR, with mixed results. KKR just came out of its last lockup.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kokusai Electric Placement - Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a> is buying out its own equity affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a> at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.</li>
<li>It's not a <em>great</em> price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender. </li>
<li>But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The "fair" multiples are low. But it'll get done.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
It's not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender. 
But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The "fair" multiples are low. But it'll get done.


[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Japan

Aisin Corporation manufactures and distributes motor vehicle parts. The Company produces drive train, transmissions, clutches, disc brakes, anti-skid brake system, suspensions, oil pumps, power windows, power door locks, and more. Aisin operates sales and production subsidiaries worldwide.

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Aisin (7259 JP)

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer

Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. Their cause is increasingly supported by...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric Placement - Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal

Applied Materials (AMAT US) is looking to raise approximately US$330m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 4.5% of Kokusai Electric...

Sumeet Singh

[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

MURAKAMI Takateru (offshore resident son of noted activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki) has built a 10+% position in Ashimori Industries (3526 JP) across...

Travis Lundy

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

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