HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>RemeGen’s 23H1 results were unsatisfactory. We also have concerns about its future sales performance. The core reason behind is the disorganized pipeline layout, leading to inefficient sales system/high cost.</li>
<li>RemeGen's core technologies are mostly in-licensed from third parties. At first, RemeGen just hoped to develop drugs/build pipeline through these technologies, without considering the potential challenges of commercialization ahead.</li>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign could negatively affected RemeGen's 23H2 performance. The Company could fail to meet management's guidance for 2023. We lowered our valuation of RemeGen to RMB12 billion-18 billion.</li>
</ul>


RemeGen’s 23H1 results were unsatisfactory. We also have concerns about its future sales performance. The core reason behind is the disorganized pipeline layout, leading to inefficient sales system/high cost.
RemeGen's core technologies are mostly in-licensed from third parties. At first, RemeGen just hoped to develop drugs/build pipeline through these technologies, without considering the potential challenges of commercialization ahead.
The anti-corruption campaign could negatively affected RemeGen's 23H2 performance. The Company could fail to meet management's guidance for 2023. We lowered our valuation of RemeGen to RMB12 billion-18 billion.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) 23H1 - This Is Why RemeGen’s Commercialization Performance Is so Weak

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables such as intraocular lens (IOL) and sports medicine medical consumables is about to begin. We listed the companies that could be affected.</li>
<li>The instability of policies seems to be a consensus among investors regarding China healthcare. However, if truly understand the logic behind policy changes and industry shifts, investors will maintain optimism.</li>
<li>We analyzed the key points of Biokin. Its valuation is ridiculously high considering the current pipeline situation and commercialization outlook. We think the bubble will eventually burst (e.g. 50% downside).</li>
</ul>


The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables such as intraocular lens (IOL) and sports medicine medical consumables is about to begin. We listed the companies that could be affected.
The instability of policies seems to be a consensus among investors regarding China healthcare. However, if truly understand the logic behind policy changes and industry shifts, investors will maintain optimism.
We analyzed the key points of Biokin. Its valuation is ridiculously high considering the current pipeline situation and commercialization outlook. We think the bubble will eventually burst (e.g. 50% downside).


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Baba's recent management change - Daniel Zhang proposed stepping down</li>
<li>NHC Director said healthcare anti-corruption must balance pros and cons, suggesting the campaign might nearing its end</li>
<li>Alibaba's subsidiary, Lingxi Games, has released a self-developed new mobile game called "Forest Kingdom." (森之国度) </li>
</ul>


Baba's recent management change - Daniel Zhang proposed stepping down
NHC Director said healthcare anti-corruption must balance pros and cons, suggesting the campaign might nearing its end
Alibaba's subsidiary, Lingxi Games, has released a self-developed new mobile game called "Forest Kingdom." (森之国度) 


China TMT Update-Baba/Healthcare-Daniel Zhang Stepping Down/ Anti-Corruption Might Nearing Its End

<ul>
<li>2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.</li>
<li>There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.</li>
<li>Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.</li>
</ul>


2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.
There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.
Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.


Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

Equity Capital Markets

Wuhan YZY Biopharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>YZY is a company that is serious about drug development However, there is actually high R&amp;D risk of its pipeline candidates. So, YZY’s R&amp;D capability has yet to be proven.</li>
<li>There are still many unanswered questions in the whole direction of bispecific antibody. If YZY’s candidates fail to prove better marginal clinical benefits, they won’t have good commercialization performance. </li>
<li>YZY has a long way to go based on its pipeline situation. Considering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuhan-yzy-biopharma-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36600:1" rel="noopener">Wuhan YZY Biopharma (YZY HK)</a> has no product in commercialization stage, its valuation may not be high.</li>
</ul>


YZY is a company that is serious about drug development However, there is actually high R&amp;D risk of its pipeline candidates. So, YZY’s R&amp;D capability has yet to be proven.
There are still many unanswered questions in the whole direction of bispecific antibody. If YZY’s candidates fail to prove better marginal clinical benefits, they won’t have good commercialization performance. 
YZY has a long way to go based on its pipeline situation. Considering Wuhan YZY Biopharma (YZY HK) has no product in commercialization stage, its valuation may not be high.


Pre-IPO Wuhan YZY Biopharma - Both R&D and Commercialization Capabilities Have yet to Be Proven

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

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Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) 23H1 - This Is Why RemeGen’s Commercialization Performance Is so Weak

RemeGen's share price performed well recently. But we think it could be a good time for investors to consider offload - The Company is actually...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma

National VBP of intraocular lens/sports medicine medical consumables begins.Investors will maintain optimism when understand the logic behind...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TMT Update-Baba/Healthcare-Daniel Zhang Stepping Down/ Anti-Corruption Might Nearing Its End

Daniel Zhang proposed stepping down;NHC Director said healthcare anti-corruption must balance pros and cons, suggesting the campaign nearing its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

In the insight, we analyzed major investment logic flaws of Zai Lab. As we expected, the company's performance is not ideal. The license-in model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Wuhan YZY Biopharma - Both R&D and Commercialization Capabilities Have yet to Be Proven

YZY passed the hearing of HKEX. We've analyzed its business, pipeline and concerns in this insight. It should be pointed out that investors have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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