HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

United Laboratories / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>WuXi AppTec’s 25H1 Profit Alert indicates the whole year performance may beat expectations. However, “valuation discount” reflects geopolitical risks. The intensive share repurchases is insignificant compared with previous share reductions.</li>
<li>Sino Biopharm will pay US$500.9 million to acquire LaNova. Based on pipeline/licensing cooperation, this is a deal with very high cost performance. However, valuation contribution may remain to be seen.</li>
<li>United Lab plans to raise HK$2.17 billion in net proceeds from Placement. Valuation logic will shift from a traditional bulk medicine company to innovative drug company. 15x P/E is expected.</li>
</ul>


WuXi AppTec’s 25H1 Profit Alert indicates the whole year performance may beat expectations. However, “valuation discount” reflects geopolitical risks. The intensive share repurchases is insignificant compared with previous share reductions.
Sino Biopharm will pay US$500.9 million to acquire LaNova. Based on pipeline/licensing cooperation, this is a deal with very high cost performance. However, valuation contribution may remain to be seen.
United Lab plans to raise HK$2.17 billion in net proceeds from Placement. Valuation logic will shift from a traditional bulk medicine company to innovative drug company. 15x P/E is expected.


China Healthcare Weekly(July20)-WuXi AppTec 25H1, Sino Biopharm Acquire LaNova, United Lab Placement

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> signed an outlicensing deal worth more than $6B with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707. Since signing the deal, 3SBio shares rallied more than 55%.</li>
<li>Considering deals signed with Chinese companies for bispecific antibody drug candidates in recent times, 3SBio seems to have secured best valuation for its asset.</li>
<li>Initiation of global trial of SSGJ-707 and data readout from its ongoing China trials for additional indications, continued strong financial performance, and new approvals are upcoming catalysts.</li>
</ul>



3SBio Inc (1530 HK) signed an outlicensing deal worth more than $6B with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707. Since signing the deal, 3SBio shares rallied more than 55%.
Considering deals signed with Chinese companies for bispecific antibody drug candidates in recent times, 3SBio seems to have secured best valuation for its asset.
Initiation of global trial of SSGJ-707 and data readout from its ongoing China trials for additional indications, continued strong financial performance, and new approvals are upcoming catalysts.


3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical (6990 HK)

<ul>
<li>The imagination space and good stories for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)</a> at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. </li>
<li>The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.</li>
<li>This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.</li>
</ul>


The imagination space and good stories for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) at this stage mainly come from SKB264. The market has higher expectations for SKB264’s clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC. 
The better the clinical results of SKB264 +PD1/L1, the greater the negative impact on AK112’s future expectations/market space in NSCLC. ADC +PD-1 seems more “convincing” than the logic of BsAb.
This July, restricted shares of major shareholders will be lifted, which may lead to big share price fluctuation if they reduce their shareholdings. Investors need not rush to be long.


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$49.6bn (US$6.33bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>The stocks with forecast inflows marginally outperformed the stocks with forecast outflows prior to announcement of the changes, but there has been underperformance since announcement.</li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$49.6bn (US$6.33bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
The stocks with forecast inflows marginally outperformed the stocks with forecast outflows prior to announcement of the changes, but there has been underperformance since announcement.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.3bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2026)

China

Akeso is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of innovative antibody drugs. It develops treatments for major diseases such as cancer, autoimmune diseases, inflammation, and metabolic diseases, with key products including cadonilimab, ivonescimab, and penpulimab. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, Guangdong, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Akeso (9926 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly(July20)-WuXi AppTec 25H1, Sino Biopharm Acquire LaNova, United Lab Placement

WuXi AppTec’s 25H1 Profit Alert indicates 2025 result may beat expectation. Sino Biopharm's acquisition of LaNova show high cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?

3SBio signed $6B outlicensing deal with Pfizer for SSGJ-707, resulting in spectacular rally in 3SBio shares. Global trial initiation of SSGJ-707...

Tina Banerjee

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

The market has high hopes for SKB264's clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC, which will impact Akeso's future expectations. Be cautious of share price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.3bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2026)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use 2 June closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly(July20)-WuXi AppTec 25H1, Sino Biopharm Acquire LaNova, United Lab Placement

WuXi AppTec’s 25H1 Profit Alert indicates 2025 result may beat expectation. Sino Biopharm's acquisition of LaNova show high cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?

​3SBio signed $6B outlicensing deal with Pfizer for SSGJ-707, resulting in spectacular rally in 3SBio shares. Global trial initiation of SSGJ-707...

Tina Banerjee

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990.HK) - Current High Valuation Is Not Secure

The market has high hopes for SKB264's clinical data on NSCLC/TNBC, which will impact Akeso's future expectations. Be cautious of share price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.3bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2026)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use 2 June closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

3SBio signed $6B outlicensing deal with Pfizer for SSGJ-707, resulting in spectacular rally in 3SBio shares. Global trial initiation of SSGJ-707...