Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.</li>
<li>The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.</li>
<li>In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07</li>
</ul>


Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.
The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.
In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07


What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

<ul>
<li>Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).</li>
<li>Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. </li>
</ul>


Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).
Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. 


<ul>
<li>More than 130 Albert Heijn franchisees, operating nearly 300 stores, have reached a settlement with supermarket chain Albert Heijn after over a decade-long legal dispute.</li>
<li>The core issue was the franchisees' claim that Albert Heijn retained too many financial benefits, including purchasing bonuses and online sales profits from AH.nl, without fair distribution.</li>
<li>In 2014, the franchisees initiated legal proceedings, claiming EUR 200m after failed negotiations. </li>
</ul>


More than 130 Albert Heijn franchisees, operating nearly 300 stores, have reached a settlement with supermarket chain Albert Heijn after over a decade-long legal dispute.
The core issue was the franchisees' claim that Albert Heijn retained too many financial benefits, including purchasing bonuses and online sales profits from AH.nl, without fair distribution.
In 2014, the franchisees initiated legal proceedings, claiming EUR 200m after failed negotiations. 


What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 3 July (Ahold Delhaize | AkzoNobel | JDE Peet's)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | company’s online sales growth in the US lagging that of most of its peers In a Dutch equivalent of the Lex Column, Het Financieele Dagblad wrote an analysis on Ahold Delhaize’s online business in the USA.</li>
<li>In contrast to Ahold, most of its US peers try to lock in online shoppers by means of special rewards.</li>
<li>Kroger, America's largest traditional supermarket chain, now offers TV streaming subscriptions— Disney+, Hulu, or ESPN+—as part of a USD 12.99 monthly membership that also includes free grocery delivery and fuel discounts. </li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | company’s online sales growth in the US lagging that of most of its peers In a Dutch equivalent of the Lex Column, Het Financieele Dagblad wrote an analysis on Ahold Delhaize’s online business in the USA.
In contrast to Ahold, most of its US peers try to lock in online shoppers by means of special rewards.
Kroger, America's largest traditional supermarket chain, now offers TV streaming subscriptions— Disney+, Hulu, or ESPN+—as part of a USD 12.99 monthly membership that also includes free grocery delivery and fuel discounts. 


What's News in Amsterdam - 22 May (Ahold Delhaize | AkzoNobel | InPost | Vopak)

Netherlands

Akzo Nobel N.V. manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers decorative paints and coatings, surfactants, polymer, pulp and paper, bleaching and oxidizing, salt-chlorine, and other chemical products. Akzo Nobel serves customers worldwide.

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA)

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.

The IDEA!

What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 3 July (Ahold Delhaize | AkzoNobel | JDE Peet's)

More than 130 Albert Heijn franchisees, operating nearly 300 stores, have reached a settlement with supermarket chain Albert Heijn after over a...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 22 May (Ahold Delhaize | AkzoNobel | InPost | Vopak)

Ahold Delhaize | company’s online sales growth in the US lagging that of most of its peers In a Dutch equivalent of the Lex Column...

The IDEA!

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