Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing transactions • Fagron | strengthens position in EMEA and granted California license to FSS Boston • bpostgroup | unions call upon their members not to strike at bpost</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing transactions • Fagron | strengthens position in EMEA and granted California license to FSS Boston • bpostgroup | unions call upon their members not to strike at bpost

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 November (AkzoNobel | ING | Fagron | bpostgroup)

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.</li>
<li>Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.</li>
<li>At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.</li>
</ul>


The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.


Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years</li></ul>

In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.</li>
<li>The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.</li>
<li>In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07</li>
</ul>


Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.
The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.
In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07


What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Netherlands

Akzo Nobel N.V. manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers decorative paints and coatings, surfactants, polymer, pulp and paper, bleaching and oxidizing, salt-chlorine, and other chemical products. Akzo Nobel serves customers worldwide.

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 November (AkzoNobel | ING | Fagron | bpostgroup)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing...

The IDEA!

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Akzo–Axalta combines strong industrial logic with sizable synergies, but value skews to Akzo. Axalta trades above deal terms, implying a bump....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In today's edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock...

The IDEA!

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the...

The IDEA!

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