Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | anti-trust clearance for acquisition NIBC • AkzoNobel | impacted by cyber incident in December • KPN/Odido | customer appetite for Odido has declined rapidly • Basic-Fit | offers fee for not exercising early redemption option on its convertible bond • Fagron | completes acquisition of Vepakum • Dutch inflation | stable at 2.4% YoY in February</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | anti-trust clearance for acquisition NIBC • AkzoNobel | impacted by cyber incident in December • KPN/Odido | customer appetite for Odido has declined rapidly • Basic-Fit | offers fee for not exercising early redemption option on its convertible bond • Fagron | completes acquisition of Vepakum • Dutch inflation | stable at 2.4% YoY in February

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | PPG’s 4Q25 performance rather uninspiring • ASML | much stronger than expected order intake; new EUR 12bn share buyback • KPN | solid 4Q25 with no real surprises, as it should be • Dutch politics | D66, VVD and CDA reach framework agreement for new coalition</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | PPG’s 4Q25 performance rather uninspiring • ASML | much stronger than expected order intake; new EUR 12bn share buyback • KPN | solid 4Q25 with no real surprises, as it should be • Dutch politics | D66, VVD and CDA reach framework agreement for new coalition

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 January (AkzoNobel | ASML | KPN | Dutch politics)

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | significant risk transfer transaction with Blackstone • AkzoNobel | closing of the Akzo Nobel India deal with JSW • TKH Group - Alfen | EU presents European Grids Package • E-commerce & Logistics | European Commission has raided the EU offices of Temu • Dutch politics | coalition talks between D66, CDA and VVD with 30 January deadline</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | significant risk transfer transaction with Blackstone • AkzoNobel | closing of the Akzo Nobel India deal with JSW • TKH Group - Alfen | EU presents European Grids Package • E-commerce & Logistics | European Commission has raided the EU offices of Temu • Dutch politics | coalition talks between D66, CDA and VVD with 30 January deadline

Alfen Beheer BV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing transactions • Fagron | strengthens position in EMEA and granted California license to FSS Boston • bpostgroup | unions call upon their members not to strike at bpost</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing transactions • Fagron | strengthens position in EMEA and granted California license to FSS Boston • bpostgroup | unions call upon their members not to strike at bpost

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 November (AkzoNobel | ING | Fagron | bpostgroup)

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.</li>
<li>Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.</li>
<li>At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.</li>
</ul>


The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.


Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Netherlands

Akzo Nobel N.V. manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers decorative paints and coatings, surfactants, polymer, pulp and paper, bleaching and oxidizing, salt-chlorine, and other chemical products. Akzo Nobel serves customers worldwide.

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA)

Basic-Fit NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | anti-trust clearance for acquisition NIBC • AkzoNobel | impacted by cyber incident in December • KPN/Odido |...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 January (AkzoNobel | ASML | KPN | Dutch politics)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | PPG’s 4Q25 performance rather uninspiring • ASML | much stronger than expected order intake; new EUR 12bn share...

The IDEA!

Alfen Beheer BV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | significant risk transfer transaction with Blackstone • AkzoNobel | closing of the Akzo Nobel India deal with...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 24 November (AkzoNobel | ING | Fagron | bpostgroup)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a second Axalta shareholder opposes the proposed merger terms • ING | completes two risk sharing...

The IDEA!

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Akzo–Axalta combines strong industrial logic with sizable synergies, but value skews to Akzo. Axalta trades above deal terms, implying a bump....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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