Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.</li>
<li>We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.</li>
<li>Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.</li>
</ul>


2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.
We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.
Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.


2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we continued our coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> and looked at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group</a> Hong Kong filings.</li>
<li>Placements continued to trickle in throught the week, across the region, apart from Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, we continued our coverage of Amer Sports (AS US) and looked at Mixue Group Hong Kong filings.
Placements continued to trickle in throught the week, across the region, apart from Hong Kong.


ECM Weekly (21st Jan 2024) - Mixue, Amer, Medi Assist, IPO Pipeline, Yamae, Alchip, NHPC, ASMedia

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> is looking to raise A$365m (US$230m) for capital expenditure and to plug its funding gap for the Kathleen Valley Lithium (KVL) project. </li>
<li>Together, the combined A$1.14bn equity/debt raising comes after Albemarle abandoned its A$6.6bn (US$4.2bn) acquisition bid for Liontown Resources earlier in the week.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is looking to raise A$365m (US$230m) for capital expenditure and to plug its funding gap for the Kathleen Valley Lithium (KVL) project. 
Together, the combined A$1.14bn equity/debt raising comes after Albemarle abandoned its A$6.6bn (US$4.2bn) acquisition bid for Liontown Resources earlier in the week.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Liontown Resources Placement - While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> shareholders approved the Scheme and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.</li>
<li>NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.</li>
<li>But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

David Blennerhassett

Lithium Power International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 18th October, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a></strong> announced it had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Chilean state miner Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer.</li>
<li>Codelco offered LPI shareholders A$0.57/share, a heft 119% premium to last close. LPI’s major shareholder, Minera Salar Blanco SpA with 27.88%, is supportive of the Scheme.. </li>
<li>LPI's Scheme Meeting has now been tabled for the 23 Jan, with implementation expected on the 16 February. The IE is supportive and LPIs board unanimously recommends the transaction.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 18th October, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) announced it had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Chilean state miner Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer.
Codelco offered LPI shareholders A$0.57/share, a heft 119% premium to last close. LPI’s major shareholder, Minera Salar Blanco SpA with 27.88%, is supportive of the Scheme.. 
LPI's Scheme Meeting has now been tabled for the 23 Jan, with implementation expected on the 16 February. The IE is supportive and LPIs board unanimously recommends the transaction.


Codelco's Offer For Lithium Power (LPI AU): 23th Jan Shareholder Vote

United States

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

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Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

ECM Weekly (21st Jan 2024) - Mixue, Amer, Medi Assist, IPO Pipeline, Yamae, Alchip, NHPC, ASMedia

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Liontown Resources Placement - While Discount Is Wide, It Is at a Premium to Its Pre-Takeover Price

After withdrawing its takeover bid, Albemarle is now looking to sell its entire stake in LTR. The stake sale will remove the overhang, and the deal...

Clarence Chu

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

Codelco's Offer For Lithium Power (LPI AU): 23th Jan Shareholder Vote

Currently trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.5%/18.3% as I type. If small, but clean arbs are your thing, get involved here.

David Blennerhassett

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