Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> reported just 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥722B in Q1FY25. However, with 24bps gross profit margin expansion to 6.98%, operating and net profits outpaced revenue growth.</li>
<li>Alfresa reiterated H1FY25 and FY25 guidance. This calls for mixed financial performance in Q2FY25, with topline growth and bottomline deterioration. Decline in profit is mainly due to higher SG&amp;A expenses.</li>
<li>Anticipating lower profit this fiscal, the company has guided for dividend of ¥63 per share, compared with ¥70 per share paid in FY24.</li>
</ul>



Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported just 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥722B in Q1FY25. However, with 24bps gross profit margin expansion to 6.98%, operating and net profits outpaced revenue growth.
Alfresa reiterated H1FY25 and FY25 guidance. This calls for mixed financial performance in Q2FY25, with topline growth and bottomline deterioration. Decline in profit is mainly due to higher SG&amp;A expenses.
Anticipating lower profit this fiscal, the company has guided for dividend of ¥63 per share, compared with ¥70 per share paid in FY24.


Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Stellar Bottomline Growth in Q1FY25 Will Not Be Replicated in Near-Term

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine launches Hong Kong IPO to raise ~$1.3B. Wuxi Biologics is selling its drug product plant in Germany to Terumo for €150M.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical got conditional approval in Japan for gene therapy product, Elevidys for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. GC Biopharma dosed first patient in Fabry disease drug trial in Korea.</li>
<li>Mayne Pharma was hit hard as an ‘untitled letter’ from the FDA related to certain promotional claims used in a speaker presentation for oral contraceptive Nextstellis, was made public.  </li>
</ul>


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine launches Hong Kong IPO to raise ~$1.3B. Wuxi Biologics is selling its drug product plant in Germany to Terumo for €150M.
Chugai Pharmaceutical got conditional approval in Japan for gene therapy product, Elevidys for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. GC Biopharma dosed first patient in Fabry disease drug trial in Korea.
Mayne Pharma was hit hard as an ‘untitled letter’ from the FDA related to certain promotional claims used in a speaker presentation for oral contraceptive Nextstellis, was made public.  


APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 18)-Hengrui Medicine, Wuxi Biologics, Chugai, GC Biopharma, Mayne Pharma

<ul>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo announced positive topline result from the phase 3 trial of Enhertu in gastric cancer. Kyorin Pharmaceutical outlicensed KRP-M223, a preclinical mast-cell-targeting candidate for chronic spontaneous urticaria, to Novartis.</li>
<li>Celltrion received FDA approval for Stoboclo and Osenvelt, biosimilars referencing Prolia and Xgeva, respectively. Zydus Lifesciences expects to start the development of world’s first combination vaccine against shigellosis and typhoid.</li>
<li>Biocon received FDA approval for lenalidomide capsules, indicated for types of multiple myeloma, and some other hematologic indications and dasatinib tablets for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia.</li>
</ul>


Daiichi Sankyo announced positive topline result from the phase 3 trial of Enhertu in gastric cancer. Kyorin Pharmaceutical outlicensed KRP-M223, a preclinical mast-cell-targeting candidate for chronic spontaneous urticaria, to Novartis.
Celltrion received FDA approval for Stoboclo and Osenvelt, biosimilars referencing Prolia and Xgeva, respectively. Zydus Lifesciences expects to start the development of world’s first combination vaccine against shigellosis and typhoid.
Biocon received FDA approval for lenalidomide capsules, indicated for types of multiple myeloma, and some other hematologic indications and dasatinib tablets for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 9)- Daiichi Sankyo, Kyorin Pharma, Celltrion, Zydus Lifesciences, Biocon

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> reported FY24 result, with revenue and net profit beating and operating profit missing guidance. FY24 revenue increased 6% YoY, driven by growth across all business segments.</li>
<li>The company is anticipating an upturn in revenue and operating profit in FY25. However, FY25 net profit is expected to fall due to the absence of extraordinary income.</li>
<li>The company has announced a share buy-back plan to purchase up to 2.5M shares for ¥5B from May 15, 2024 to August 30, 2024.  </li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) reported FY24 result, with revenue and net profit beating and operating profit missing guidance. FY24 revenue increased 6% YoY, driven by growth across all business segments.
The company is anticipating an upturn in revenue and operating profit in FY25. However, FY25 net profit is expected to fall due to the absence of extraordinary income.
The company has announced a share buy-back plan to purchase up to 2.5M shares for ¥5B from May 15, 2024 to August 30, 2024.  


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Mixed FY24 Result; Growth to Continue in FY25; Buyback Plan Announced

Japan

Alfresa Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Azwell Inc. and Fukujin Co., Ltd.  The Company's subsidiaries mainly wholesale and manufacture medical related products including medicines, reagents, and medical tools and equipment.

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Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)