External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alibaba’s core China marketplace GMV is on stable recovery track, aided by discretionary consumption recovery, macro recovery, and Alibaba’s strategy to enhance value proposition for both customers and merchants.</li><li>With the unveiling of reorganization plan on 28 March, we expect overall business agility and innovative capabilities would be better propelled, and improving shareholder return.</li><li>Taking into consideration of China e-commerce market and key business segments outlook, we adjust our forecasts and SOTP derived target price accordingly to US$154.0 (prior US$155.5), mainly reflecting near term revenue growth headwind on direct sales business due to high-base effect. Maintain BUY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba’s core China marketplace GMV is on stable recovery track, aided by discretionary consumption recovery, macro recovery, and Alibaba’s strategy to enhance value proposition for both customers and merchants.With the unveiling of reorganization plan on 28 March, we expect overall business agility and innovative capabilities would be better propelled, and improving shareholder return.Taking into consideration of China e-commerce market and key business segments outlook, we adjust our forecasts and SOTP derived target price accordingly to US$154.0 (prior US$155.5), mainly reflecting near term revenue growth headwind on direct sales business due to high-base effect. Maintain BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) – A recovery year ahead with more to expect

<ul><li>Alibaba announced (23 Feb) its 3QFY23 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB247.8bn, up 2% YoY, 1% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to better than expected direct sales and international commerce revenue generation.</li><li>Driven by sustained operating efficiency improvement across business lines, non-GAAP net income grew 12% YoY to RMB49.9bn, 13/12% ahead of our estimate/consensus.</li><li>Regarding investment strategy for China retail business in 2023, management highlighted three key focusing points: 1) enhance user stickiness and time spend; 2) enhance value for money proposition; and 3) enhance neighbourhood digital retail business deployment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba announced (23 Feb) its 3QFY23 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB247.8bn, up 2% YoY, 1% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to better than expected direct sales and international commerce revenue generation.Driven by sustained operating efficiency improvement across business lines, non-GAAP net income grew 12% YoY to RMB49.9bn, 13/12% ahead of our estimate/consensus.Regarding investment strategy for China retail business in 2023, management highlighted three key focusing points: 1) enhance user stickiness and time spend; 2) enhance value for money proposition; and 3) enhance neighbourhood digital retail business deployment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) – Operating efficiency improvement on track

<ul><li>Although pandemic impact will weigh on revenue growth recovery in 1Q23, Alibaba Group (BABA)’s China retail marketplace GMV growth should recover along with overall consumption recovery aided by economic stimulus policy in 2023, in our view.</li><li>Prudent cost control and strategic move to drive operating efficiency improvement are bearing fruit, and the potential recovery in revenue growth could fuel steady earnings growth in 2023.</li><li>We remain positive on BABA’s long-term development aided by international expansion and cloud business. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Although pandemic impact will weigh on revenue growth recovery in 1Q23, Alibaba Group (BABA)’s China retail marketplace GMV growth should recover along with overall consumption recovery aided by economic stimulus policy in 2023, in our view.Prudent cost control and strategic move to drive operating efficiency improvement are bearing fruit, and the potential recovery in revenue growth could fuel steady earnings growth in 2023.We remain positive on BABA’s long-term development aided by international expansion and cloud business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) – Looking beyond short-term pandemic impact

<ul><li>Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba) announced (17 Nov) its 2QFY23 (March year- end) results: total revenue was RMB207.2bn, up 3% YoY, 0.8% shy of both our estimate and Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to lower than expected China commerce revenue generation due to soft macro.</li><li>However, driven by effective cost control and operating efficiency improvement, non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB34.3bn, up 13% YoY, 5/16% ahead of our forecast/consensus estimates.</li><li>With strategic move to focus more on both scale and efficiency, we expect steady non-GAAP net profit growth to sustain in the rest of FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba) announced (17 Nov) its 2QFY23 (March year- end) results: total revenue was RMB207.2bn, up 3% YoY, 0.8% shy of both our estimate and Bloomberg consensus, mainly due to lower than expected China commerce revenue generation due to soft macro.However, driven by effective cost control and operating efficiency improvement, non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB34.3bn, up 13% YoY, 5/16% ahead of our forecast/consensus estimates.With strategic move to focus more on both scale and efficiency, we expect steady non-GAAP net profit growth to sustain in the rest of FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) – Earnings back on growth track

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.</li><li>The Bank of Thailand expects the Thai economy in 3Q22E to grow more than 3% YoY, improving from the 2Q22 figure of +2.5% YoY and 1Q22's +2.2% YoY.</li><li>BofA's survey of 272 fund managers from November 4-10 showed that the global economy is at high risk of a recession (77%) and stagflation (92%).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.The Bank of Thailand expects the Thai economy in 3Q22E to grow more than 3% YoY, improving from the 2Q22 figure of +2.5% YoY and 1Q22's +2.2% YoY.BofA's survey of 272 fund managers from November 4-10 showed that the global economy is at high risk of a recession (77%) and stagflation (92%).

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology, offering C2C, B2C, and B2B sales services through various marketplaces. It also provides digital media and entertainment, logistics, and cloud computing services. The company was founded in Hangzhou, China, in 1999.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA US) – A recovery year ahead with more to expect

With the unveiling of reorganization plan on 28 March, we expect overall business agility and innovative capabilities would be better propelled,...

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US) – Operating efficiency improvement on track

Alibaba announced (23 Feb) its 3QFY23 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB247.8bn, up 2% YoY, 1% ahead of both our forecast and...

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US) – Looking beyond short-term pandemic impact

Although pandemic impact will weigh on revenue growth recovery in 1Q23, Alibaba Group (BABA)’s China retail marketplace GMV growth should recover...

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US) – Earnings back on growth track

With strategic move to focus more on both scale and efficiency, we expect steady non-GAAP net profit growth to sustain in the rest of FY23

CMB International

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points. The...

Krungthai XSpring

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