Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.</li>
<li>The recommended name last week was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Alibaba (9988 HK) / Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares sharply higher.</li><li>The Chinese tech conglomerate raised $3.2 billion through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2032, a financing round earmarked for strengthening its AI and cloud infrastructure.</li><li>At the same time, reports surfaced that Alibaba is beginning to deploy in-house AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia’s costly accelerators and signaling a shift toward technological sovereignty in the middle of China’s broader AI race.</li></ul>

Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares sharply higher.The Chinese tech conglomerate raised $3.2 billion through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2032, a financing round earmarked for strengthening its AI and cloud infrastructure.At the same time, reports surfaced that Alibaba is beginning to deploy in-house AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia’s costly accelerators and signaling a shift toward technological sovereignty in the middle of China’s broader AI race.

Alibaba Taps AI Chips, Raises $3.2 Billion, & Sends Wall Street Buzzing!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Biren Intelligent Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-biren-intelligent-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39934:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Biren Intelligent Technology,</a> a GPGPU chips and computing solutions provider, aims to raise up to US$624m in its Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>According to CIC, Biren was the first company in China to package dual AI computing dies using 2.5D chiplet technology and the first to support advanced interconnection specifications.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Biren Intelligent Technology, a GPGPU chips and computing solutions provider, aims to raise up to US$624m in its Hong Kong listing.
According to CIC, Biren was the first company in China to package dual AI computing dies using 2.5D chiplet technology and the first to support advanced interconnection specifications.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Shanghai Biren Technology IPO - It's Not Cheap, but Neither Are Its Peers

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

I hate to say something "feels toppish" into Golden Week but the sentiment on HK/Chinese stocks feels that way. Lots of volatility where there...

Travis Lundy

Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

Going short Alibaba (9988 HK) vs. long the Hang Seng Index targets a 12% return by applying a pair trade framework based on quantitative mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Taps AI Chips, Raises $3.2 Billion, & Sends Wall Street Buzzing!

Alibaba Group is back in the spotlight after unveiling a trifecta of high-profile moves that have reignited investor interest and sent its shares...

Baptista Research

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Biren Technology IPO - It's Not Cheap, but Neither Are Its Peers

Shanghai Biren Intelligent Technology, a GPGPU chips and computing solutions provider, aims to raise up to US$624m in its Hong Kong listing. In...

Sumeet Singh

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