Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes cleared HK$800bn for the second week in a row. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$75bn which was perhaps a new record.</li>
<li>Notable again is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$865bn traded and SOUTHBOUND "only" bought HK$75bn, HK$395bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.</li>
<li>Last week I flipped to short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. Sentiment may worsen and there's lots to sell later this week. Staying short Alibaba for now. </li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes cleared HK$800bn for the second week in a row. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$75bn which was perhaps a new record.
Notable again is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$865bn traded and SOUTHBOUND "only" bought HK$75bn, HK$395bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.
Last week I flipped to short Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). Sentiment may worsen and there's lots to sell later this week. Staying short Alibaba for now. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><strong>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</strong> is making a record-breaking bet on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, announcing on Monday that it will inject more than 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) into cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years — more than its total capital expenditure over the past decade.</li><li>The Chinese tech giant said in a statement that the investment marks the largest private-sector commitment to cloud and AI hardware in China.</li><li>Since its 2014 initial public offering, Alibaba’s total capital expenditures from 2015 to 2024 have amounted to approximately 376 billion yuan.</li></ul>

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is making a record-breaking bet on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, announcing on Monday that it will inject more than 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) into cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years — more than its total capital expenditure over the past decade.The Chinese tech giant said in a statement that the investment marks the largest private-sector commitment to cloud and AI hardware in China.Since its 2014 initial public offering, Alibaba’s total capital expenditures from 2015 to 2024 have amounted to approximately 376 billion yuan.

Alibaba’s $53 Billion Bet on an AI and Cloud Expansion Windfall 

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.</li><li>Singapore's Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.</li><li>Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.</li></ul>

Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.Singapore's Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Alibaba reported C4Q24 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus, but non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 12%/11%, attributable to cost control and AntFin's profitability improvement;</li>
<li>But what drives the stock was the strong performance in AliCloud and an articulation of a clear investment logic on Generative AI (GAI), </li>
<li>While the AI inflection point has arrived earlier than we expected, we remain eying for the domestic e-commerce turnaround with Jiang Fan at the helms. </li>
</ul>


Alibaba reported C4Q24 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus, but non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 12%/11%, attributable to cost control and AntFin's profitability improvement;
But what drives the stock was the strong performance in AliCloud and an articulation of a clear investment logic on Generative AI (GAI), 
While the AI inflection point has arrived earlier than we expected, we remain eying for the domestic e-commerce turnaround with Jiang Fan at the helms. 


[Alibaba (BABA US,BUY, TP US$150) TP Change]: AI’s Inflection Point Arrived, Will E-Commerce’s Also?

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.</li>
<li>Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.</li>
<li>Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.
Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.
Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows were again huge, both short-term trading and actual net buying. Last week flipped to short Alibaba. This week stays...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba’s $53 Billion Bet on an AI and Cloud Expansion Windfall

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is making a record-breaking bet on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, announcing on Monday that it will...

Caixin Global

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

Hong Kong stops land sales, Centurion profits double in Singapore, Alibaba to invest $53B in AI, Hotel Indigo Auckland for sale.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

[Alibaba (BABA US,BUY, TP US$150) TP Change]: AI’s Inflection Point Arrived, Will E-Commerce’s Also?

Alibaba beats estimates with strong non-GAAP net income, driven by AliCloud and investment in Generative AI, eyeing e-commerce turnaround.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Feb 2025); Big Volumes, HUGE Net Buys on Blue Chips, Tech-Y Names

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows were again huge, both short-term trading and actual net buying. Last week flipped to short Alibaba. This week stays...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba’s $53 Billion Bet on an AI and Cloud Expansion Windfall

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is making a record-breaking bet on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, announcing on Monday that it will...

Caixin Global

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

Hong Kong stops land sales, Centurion profits double in Singapore, Alibaba to invest $53B in AI, Hotel Indigo Auckland for sale.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

[Alibaba (BABA US,BUY, TP US$150) TP Change]: AI’s Inflection Point Arrived, Will E-Commerce’s Also?

​Alibaba beats estimates with strong non-GAAP net income, driven by AliCloud and investment in Generative AI, eyeing e-commerce turnaround.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba beats estimates with strong non-GAAP net income, driven by AliCloud and investment in Generative AI, eyeing e-commerce turnaround.