Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> while there were redemptions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Inflows continue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> while there were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.
There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) while there were redemptions from the Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK). 
Inflows continue for iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) while there were outflows from iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)</li>
</ul>


JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)
700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）
3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> led consortium.</li>
<li>Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) led consortium.
Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Amer Sports Pre-IPO - The Positives - Great Brands, Strong Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect BABA to report CY4Q23 top-line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income (3.2%), (7.1%) and (3.0%) vs. consensus. </li>
<li>We estimate Taobao/Tmall GMV grew 2.4%, but was offset by lower take-rate, we expect;</li>
<li>BABA’s “Return to Taobao” strategy tilts traffic to low-priced Taobao products to fight PDD for low-priced mindset.</li>
</ul>


We expect BABA to report CY4Q23 top-line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income (3.2%), (7.1%) and (3.0%) vs. consensus. 
We estimate Taobao/Tmall GMV grew 2.4%, but was offset by lower take-rate, we expect;
BABA’s “Return to Taobao” strategy tilts traffic to low-priced Taobao products to fight PDD for low-priced mindset.


[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$68) TP Change]: Return to Taobao Is a Return to Lower Take-Rate

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regulatory risks back in the spotlight, dampening decent year for both counters.</li>
<li>At the end of last year, China’s regulator released a proposal to introduce spending and time limits on gaming (22 Dec).</li>
<li>Tencent was down 12% on the day, Naspers and Prosus followed suit with more aggressive selling, sending both stocks down 17% for the half day of trading. </li>
</ul>


Regulatory risks back in the spotlight, dampening decent year for both counters.
At the end of last year, China’s regulator released a proposal to introduce spending and time limits on gaming (22 Dec).
Tencent was down 12% on the day, Naspers and Prosus followed suit with more aggressive selling, sending both stocks down 17% for the half day of trading. 


Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): A Look Back at 2023, Regulatory Risk Back in Spotlight

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Amer Sports Pre-IPO - The Positives - Great Brands, Strong Growth

Amer Sports (AS US) plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) led...

Sumeet Singh

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$68) TP Change]: Return to Taobao Is a Return to Lower Take-Rate

Alibaba's earnings report shows a decline in adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income, but a growth in Taobao/Tmall GMV due to a shift in strategy.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): A Look Back at 2023, Regulatory Risk Back in Spotlight

A look into how the discounts traded through the year. Naspers outperformed Prosus by a large margin highlighting the merits of the structure...

DMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

​Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Amer Sports Pre-IPO - The Positives - Great Brands, Strong Growth

Amer Sports (AS US) plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) led...

Sumeet Singh

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$68) TP Change]: Return to Taobao Is a Return to Lower Take-Rate

​Alibaba's earnings report shows a decline in adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income, but a growth in Taobao/Tmall GMV due to a shift in strategy.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): A Look Back at 2023, Regulatory Risk Back in Spotlight

A look into how the discounts traded through the year. Naspers outperformed Prosus by a large margin highlighting the merits of the structure...

DMA

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Alibaba's earnings report shows a decline in adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income, but a growth in Taobao/Tmall GMV due to a shift in strategy.