China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Catering was the top growing consumption category in July (-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>1810.HK/2454.TT: Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference (+)</li>
<li>Property sector update: New home sales in July remain weak, and expect the landing of supportive policies（/）</li>
</ul>


BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Catering was the top growing consumption category in July (-/-/-/+)
1810.HK/2454.TT: Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference (+)
Property sector update: New home sales in July remain weak, and expect the landing of supportive policies（/）


China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/1810.HK/2454.TT/BEKE-Catering Was the Top Growing Category

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> is laser-focused on shifting the needle towards a semblance of profitability and likely with renewed vigour with a new management team in place. </li>
<li>2Q2023 results will likely reflect a slower headline GMV but should show an improvement in take rates and contribution margin. More colour on recent initiatives would be welcomed by investors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> has launched a standalone GoPay app which should help to boost its off-platform usage and has the potential to nurture more collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a>.</li>
</ul>



GoTo is laser-focused on shifting the needle towards a semblance of profitability and likely with renewed vigour with a new management team in place. 
2Q2023 results will likely reflect a slower headline GMV but should show an improvement in take rates and contribution margin. More colour on recent initiatives would be welcomed by investors.

GoTo has launched a standalone GoPay app which should help to boost its off-platform usage and has the potential to nurture more collaboration with Bank Jago.


<ul>
<li>The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating employment, income and investments;</li>
<li>With overwhelming advantage in financing, US’s reshoring initiative is bound to succeed in its first iteration. </li>
<li>For China, boosting demand is no longer an option. Exporting deflation might be the only answer.</li>
</ul>


The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating employment, income and investments;
With overwhelming advantage in financing, US’s reshoring initiative is bound to succeed in its first iteration. 
For China, boosting demand is no longer an option. Exporting deflation might be the only answer.


[Blue Lotus Macro]: Underestimating the Pain but Unable to Turn Back

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are high probability deletions in September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion.</li>
<li>The second add could be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> if it passes the velocity test. If not, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> will be added.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

<ul>
<li>BABA reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 10% and in-line vs. our estimate, and 12% and 20% vs. consensus, respectively. Taobao/T-mall 3P, international retail, and DME beat our estimate.</li>
<li>We suspect WeChat cooperation has been a main driver for increasing DAU of a cohort of previously untapped users. This also drove merchants to return to the platform.</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 120 to reflect (1) higher growth of Taobao/Tmall, and (2) improved profitability of most business groups.</li>
</ul>


BABA reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 10% and in-line vs. our estimate, and 12% and 20% vs. consensus, respectively. Taobao/T-mall 3P, international retail, and DME beat our estimate.
We suspect WeChat cooperation has been a main driver for increasing DAU of a cohort of previously untapped users. This also drove merchants to return to the platform.
We maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 120 to reflect (1) higher growth of Taobao/Tmall, and (2) improved profitability of most business groups.


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Target Price Change]: Return of Users and Merchants Will Continue

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/1810.HK/2454.TT/BEKE-Catering Was the Top Growing Category

Catering was the top growing consumption category in July;Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference; New home sales in July remain...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Shifting the Needle?

GoTo is laser-focused on shifting the needle towards a semblance of profitability and likely with renewed vigour with a new management team in place.

Angus Mackintosh

[Blue Lotus Macro]: Underestimating the Pain but Unable to Turn Back

The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Target Price Change]: Return of Users and Merchants Will Continue

We maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 120 to reflect (1) higher growth of Taobao/Tmall, and (2) improved profitability of most business groups.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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