Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>, majority-owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a definitive agreement for a "Going-Private Transaction" at US$9/share.</p>
<p>Additionally, Sohu entered into a SPA with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, which would result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou. Therefore the Merger would be a short-form merger - there is no vote. Dissenting rights will, however, now be afforded following the Grand Court of  Cayman Islands ruling handed down on the 28 January this year and discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/H7E1t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted</a></em>. Sohu's privatisation of Changyou competed on the 17 April.</p>
</div><div>
<p>The deal appeared to be a lock, until Sogou's 1 December <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115473750&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=SC+13E3%2FA&amp;dateFiled=2020-12-01&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEC filing</a>, wherein the termination date for the SPA was pushed out to 31 July, from 29 March previously, to allow clearance from the PRC regulatory authorities, specifically State Administration for Market Regulation or SAMR.</p>
<p>What seemed an ample extension at the time now appears less assured as SAMR bears down on the tech sector. </p>
<p>This muddies when (and potentially if) the merger goes through. Plus the knock-on effect to Sohu which would pocket ~US$1.2bn under the merger compared to its current maker cap of ~US$0.7bn.</p>
<p>But Tencent is unlikely to walk - not at this Offer price. </p>
</div><div><p>More below the fold.</p></div>


Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US), majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)  and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), entered into a definitive agreement for a "Going-Private Transaction" at US$9/share.
Additionally, Sohu entered into a SPA with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, which would result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou. Therefore the Merger would be a short-form merger - there is no vote. Dissenting rights will, however, now be afforded following the Grand Court of  Cayman Islands ruling handed down on the 28 January this year and discussed in Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted. Sohu's privatisation of Changyou competed on the 17 April.

The deal appeared to be a lock, until Sogou's 1 December SEC filing, wherein the termination date for the SPA was pushed out to 31 July, from 29 March previously, to allow clearance from the PRC regulatory authorities, specifically State Administration for Market Regulation or SAMR.
What seemed an ample extension at the time now appears less assured as SAMR bears down on the tech sector. 
This muddies when (and potentially if) the merger goes through. Plus the knock-on effect to Sohu which would pocket ~US$1.2bn under the merger compared to its current maker cap of ~US$0.7bn.
But Tencent is unlikely to walk - not at this Offer price. 
More below the fold.

Sohu/Sogou: Persuasive Situation Amid Ongoing Antitrust Investigations

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>China online physical goods retail sales growth for April and May is tracking well below the 1Q21 level.  While this is largely an optics phenomenon due to unfavorable comparisons with the COVID fueled 2Q20, the upcoming 2Q21 earnings are unlikely to provide a catalyst for ecommerce platforms, in my view. However, with a sharp share price fall in the last 3 months, Vipshop shares now stand out as a value play. </p><h3>Key takeaways from the China retail sales data for May: </h3><ul>
<li>China overall retail sales growth YoY for May drops to 12.4% from 34% in 1Q21, but it is at near par with 1Q21 on a two-year CAGR basis.     </li>
<li>Online physical goods sales growth YoY for April and May combined is 7.3% YoY, well below the 26% in 1Q21 but at a similar 15% 2 YR CAGR rate.  </li>
<li>The apparel category sales showed relatively stronger growth in April and May.</li>
<li>Overall, Chinese online shopping platform share prices are down 11% to 60% in the last 3 months.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</strong></a><strong>is now back in the value category with the stock trading at 9-10x FY21 earnings (based on consensus EPS and my own estimate)</strong>. </li>
<li>Consensus estimates for VIPS are likely to continue to fall to rationalize the share price drop.  I see potential value emerging once the revision is complete. </li>
<li>I estimate Vipshop's 2Q21 revenue growth to be 29% YoY, beating consensus estimate and the company's upper range guidance.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> will see revenue growth deceleration as well with PDD likely to see largest growth deceleration (excluding direct sales).   </li>
</ul>

China online physical goods retail sales growth for April and May is tracking well below the 1Q21 level.  While this is largely an optics phenomenon due to unfavorable comparisons with the COVID fueled 2Q20, the upcoming 2Q21 earnings are unlikely to provide a catalyst for ecommerce platforms, in my view. However, with a sharp share price fall in the last 3 months, Vipshop shares now stand out as a value play. Key takeaways from the China retail sales data for May: 
China overall retail sales growth YoY for May drops to 12.4% from 34% in 1Q21, but it is at near par with 1Q21 on a two-year CAGR basis.     
Online physical goods sales growth YoY for April and May combined is 7.3% YoY, well below the 26% in 1Q21 but at a similar 15% 2 YR CAGR rate.  
The apparel category sales showed relatively stronger growth in April and May.
Overall, Chinese online shopping platform share prices are down 11% to 60% in the last 3 months.  Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)is now back in the value category with the stock trading at 9-10x FY21 earnings (based on consensus EPS and my own estimate). 
Consensus estimates for VIPS are likely to continue to fall to rationalize the share price drop.  I see potential value emerging once the revision is complete. 
I estimate Vipshop's 2Q21 revenue growth to be 29% YoY, beating consensus estimate and the company's upper range guidance.  Pinduoduo (PDD US), Alibaba Group (BABA US), and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) will see revenue growth deceleration as well with PDD likely to see largest growth deceleration (excluding direct sales).   


China Online Retail Sales Tracker: April and May Sales Growth Slows on Unfavorable Comps

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$10bn in its US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, along with other investors.</p></div><div><p>It is present in over 4,000 cities, counties and towns across 15 countries. As of twelve months ending (LTM) 1Q21, it had 493m annual active users and 15m drivers, who participated in 41m average daily transactions. It generated a gross transaction value of RMB341bn over LTM1Q21.  </p></div><div><p>We provided the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>:</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-has-a-principal-agent-problem-rumoured-target-valuation-is-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-pre-ipo-competitive-in-car-hailing-uncompetitive-in-others-generally-valuable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note we will talk about our earnings estimates and valuations. </p>
</div>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$10bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Tencent (700 HK), along with other investors.It is present in over 4,000 cities, counties and towns across 15 countries. As of twelve months ending (LTM) 1Q21, it had 493m annual active users and 15m drivers, who participated in 41m average daily transactions. It generated a gross transaction value of RMB341bn over LTM1Q21.  We provided the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes:


DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet.
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch
DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

In this note we will talk about our earnings estimates and valuations. 


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>A pioneer in China’s online discount retail, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> is currently trading at US$ 17.52 per share, down 62% from the March 2021 peak. Vipshop’s share price momentum unraveled in March 2021 as investors started shifting from growth to value stocks. Vipshop’s decline was further aggravated by the fall of Archegos (held an outsized long position) and weaker than expected Q2 guidance.</li>
<li>At 0.44x FY+2 EV/Sales (past five-year median 0.62x) with around 13.5% revenue CAGR, we think further downside to Vipshop is limited. Moreover, at 6.9x FY+2 EV/EBIT with 19% EBIT CAGR and 8.9x FY+2 PE with 42% EPS CAGR, Vipshop seems to offer more value than most value names in the market.</li>
</ul>


A pioneer in China’s online discount retail, Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) is currently trading at US$ 17.52 per share, down 62% from the March 2021 peak. Vipshop’s share price momentum unraveled in March 2021 as investors started shifting from growth to value stocks. Vipshop’s decline was further aggravated by the fall of Archegos (held an outsized long position) and weaker than expected Q2 guidance.
At 0.44x FY+2 EV/Sales (past five-year median 0.62x) with around 13.5% revenue CAGR, we think further downside to Vipshop is limited. Moreover, at 6.9x FY+2 EV/EBIT with 19% EBIT CAGR and 8.9x FY+2 PE with 42% EPS CAGR, Vipshop seems to offer more value than most value names in the market.


Vipshop: A Summer Bargain After Archegos Caused a Long Squeeze

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> has drifted lower due to regulatory concerns and been building bull energy within dual time frame contracting patterns as the MACD sets up bull triangulation. Near term risk to 190 and taking a layered approach for an explosive move set for late summer.</p><p>Risk to reward is now very favorable.</p><p>Timing: A global cycle setback would mean BABA continues to drift within this bull wedge in July but continues to build bull energy for a breakout in late summer into year end.</p>

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has drifted lower due to regulatory concerns and been building bull energy within dual time frame contracting patterns as the MACD sets up bull triangulation. Near term risk to 190 and taking a layered approach for an explosive move set for late summer.Risk to reward is now very favorable.Timing: A global cycle setback would mean BABA continues to drift within this bull wedge in July but continues to build bull energy for a breakout in late summer into year end.

BABA HK Mega Bullish Pattern Building Energy for a Breakout

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Sohu/Sogou: Persuasive Situation Amid Ongoing Antitrust Investigations

Trading at a gross spread of 7.5%. Even assuming another six months out from here to complete the deal, that looks compelling. I still like Sohu...

David Blennerhassett

China Online Retail Sales Tracker: April and May Sales Growth Slows on Unfavorable Comps

Online retail sales growth for April and May is tracking well below the 1Q21 level. This is due to optics, but 2Q21 earnings are unlikely to be a...

Mitchell Kim

DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$10bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank...

Sumeet Singh

Vipshop: A Summer Bargain After Archegos Caused a Long Squeeze

Vipshop’s share price momentum unraveled in March 2021 as investors started shifting from growth to value stocks. Vipshop’s decline was further...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

BABA HK Mega Bullish Pattern Building Energy for a Breakout

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has drifted lower, building bull energy within dual time contracting patterns and MACD bull triangulation. Taking a layered...

Thomas Schroeder

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